CourcyInt
Putin has Washington in sights during annual address to Russian parliament - CIS 11 May 2006
COURCYINT SPECIAL BULLETIN
To: All Courcy's Intelligence Service members
Date: 11 MAY 2006
From: JKC de Courcy, Chief Executive, Courcy's Intelligence Service
Subject: PUTIN HAS WASHINGTON IN SIGHTS DURING ANNUAL ADDRESS TO RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT
On 10 May, Russia's President Vladimir Putin made his annual "state-of-the-nation" address to parliament. Reporting on the address, the BBC said that it "had a less heavy international focus than had been predicted by Kremlin sources". But although there was only the shortest overt mention of Russia's relations with the world's main powers, concern over Russia's international standing suffused almost the entire speech. We were also struck by the extent of the criticism of the United States - although, of course, without mentioning the US by name.
If this interpretation is right, it could have important immediate implications. Also on 10 May, the US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick made it clear to the US House of Representatives Committee on International Affairs that it is Russia, not China, that is blocking agreement on how to proceed against Iran. He said that China "will not be an obstacle" to efforts to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions if the US can convince Russia of the need to support tough action. He added that China has "been given a little bit of a cushion because of Russia" and that "if we can bring Russia along with some of this, my own sense is that China will not be an obstacle in the process".
Putin's speech was prefaced with the remark that "our main efforts are directed at those very areas which directly determine citizens' quality of life". However, the real driving force behind Putin's speech and the measures he announced seemed to be contained in a passage where he said: "We must be capable of responding to attempts by anybody whatsoever to exert foreign policy pressure on Russia, including attempts with the aim of strengthening their own standing at our expense."
Even the section devoted to Russia's demographic problems (its population is declining "by nearly 700,000" a year), was introduced not as primarily an economic issue but as a defence issue. Putin said: "And now the main thing. What is the main thing for us? ...At the Ministry of Defence they know what the main thing is for us. I really am going to talk about love, about women, about children..."
And it really did seem to be the United States that was causing Putin most concern. Although there was obvious ambiguity as to whom the criticism was aimed at, he appeared to criticise the US over the WTO negotiations, disarmament, Russia's response to domestic terrorism and ethnic conflicts, the use of force to resolve disputes, and unilateralism and hypocrisy over human rights. These are the key passages:
*** ON WTO NEGOTIATIONS: "We continue to hold negotiations on joining the World Trade Organization. We will conduct these only under conditions that fully correspond to Russia's economic interests. It is obvious that our economy is even now more open than the economies of many members of that respected organization. And talks on Russia's admission to the WTO must not become a bargaining tool on issues that have nothing to do with that organization's activities."
*** ON DISARMAMENT: "Against the background of the acute threat posed by international terrorism, the key issues of disarmament have virtually fallen off the global agenda. It's premature to speak of the end of the arms race...It's gaining momentum and is approaching a new technological level, threatening to create a new arsenal of the so-called destabilizing types of weapons. There is still no guarantee that weapons including nuclear ones, will not be deployed in space. There is the potential threat of the creation and proliferation of low-yield nuclear charges."
*** ON RUSSIA'S RESPONSE TO DOMESTIC TERRORISM AND ETHNIC DISPUTES: "Terrorism remains a considerable danger. Local conflicts, often ethnically fuelled and sometimes accompanied by interfaith conflicts...still remain a significant support base for terrorists, a source for their weapons and a field for them to use force...I know that some would be glad to see Russia mired in these problems and, by way of consequence, unable to resolve any of its development issues."
*** ON THE USE OF FORCE TO RESOLVE DISPUTES: "Let me stress that we unequivocally favour strengthening the non-proliferation regime, without any exception, on the basis of international law. It is known that the use of force rarely brings the desired result, and its consequences are often worse than the original threat."
*** ON UNILATERALISM AND HYPOCRISY OVER HUMAN RIGHTS: "Just where does all the rhetoric on the need to fight for human rights and democracy disappear when it comes to the need to realize one's own interests. It turns out that everything is permitted, there are no restrictions whatsoever."
As to what should be done about all this, Putin said: "In the coming five years, the strategic nuclear forces should be substantially better equipped with modern aircraft for long-range aviation, submarines, and launch installations for the strategic missile troops. Even today, work is being successfully carried out to create unique precision weapons and highly manoeuvrable warheads that present an unpredictable trajectory to a potential foe. Along with the air defence penetration systems that we already have, new types of weaponry will allow us to maintain what is undoubtedly one of the most significant guarantees of world stability, namely the preservation of the strategic balance of forces. We must take into account plans and trends in the development of other countries' armed forces. We must know about possible developments. But we must not try to keep up in terms of quantity, we must not spend money in vain. Our response must be based on intellectual superiority. It will be asymmetrical and less cost-intensive, but will undoubtedly increase the reliability and effectiveness of our nuclear triad."
He concluded: "Russia needs an army that has all the resources to respond appropriately to modern day threats. Our armed forces must be capable of simultaneously fighting in global, regional and, if necessary, several local conflicts. It must be able, under any circumstances, to ensure Russia's security and territorial integrity."
THE FULL TEXT OF PUTIN'S STATE-OF-THE-NATION SPEECH CAN BE ACCESSED VIA THE FOLLOWING LINK: