CourcyInt

COURCYINT SPECIAL BULLETIN

To: All Courcy's Intelligence Service members

Date: 30 MARCH 2006

From: JKC de Courcy, Chief Executive, Courcy's Intelligence Service

Subject: EAST ASIA STRATEGIC REVIEW 2006

Japan's National Institute for Defence Studies has just released its East Asian Strategic Review 2006.

The report notes that while a full-scale attack on Japan as envisaged during the Cold War is now inconceivable, "there is a mounting necessity to provide against new threats and diverse situations such as ballistic missile attack or an invasion of Japan's offshore islands".  Key points in the report include:

CHINA

China's strategy in East Asia "is not entirely clear".  It is pursuing "neighbourly diplomacy" aimed at cultivating cooperative relations with neighbours, however its policy towards Japan is "increasingly stalemated".

The report notes that China is continuing to modernize its nuclear and missile capabilities and its naval and air forces to enable it to prevent Taiwan from becoming independent.  For instance, it has acquired Sukhoi fighters from Russia to secure command of the air over the Taiwan Strait, and it has increased the number of short-range ballistic missiles deployed in the coastal area bordering the Strait.  Since 1996, the PLA has repeatedly carried out military exercises with an invasion of Taiwan in mind, including a first-ever large-scale bilateral military exercise with Russia in August 2005.

China is also pressing ahead with research and development on technologies for building missiles with multiple warheads and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) to counter the missile-defence capability of the United States.  It test launched an SLBM with an estimated range of 8,000km  in June 2005.

NORTH KOREA

North Korea is believed to have nuclear weapons and chemical and biological weapons - and it is developing missiles to deliver these weapons, including the 3,500-6,000km range Taepo Dong-2.

SOUTH KOREA

The report makes an interesting point about South Korea.  It says that Seoul is frightened that it might "become entrapped in the US policy toward China".  There are discussions about assigning a regional role to the US-South Korea alliance, and "should this happen, South Korea would have to cooperate with the United States in deterring China, making it difficult for Seoul to play the role of mediator envisaged in the Balancer of Northeast Asia Initiative."  The report notes: "Being an ally of the United States is not easily compatible with being a regional mediator among great powers."

NON-CONVENTIONAL THREATS

In addition to these conventional threats, the report identifies a number of unconventional threats in Southeast Asia such as terrorist activities, separatist and independence movements, and maritime piracy in areas surrounding the Malacca Strait.

THE UNITED STATES

A section of the report looks at the East Asia role of the United States.  It notes that the US-Japan alliance is growing stronger, but, on the other hand, it also notes that "a movement for creating an East Asian Community excluding the United States is gathering pace".  It says the question for Japan of "how to get involved in the process of forming such a community in the face of China's ambition to exclude the US presents a difficult challenge".

It also notes that US forces in the region are undergoing a major change, with the US moving from a military posture geared to deterrence to one that places more emphasis on the capability to undertake expeditionary operations.  The report says that "US forces in the region have to meet two competing requirements, namely, a reduction in troop numbers and maintenance of deterrence and rapid reaction capability" - and it adds the realignment of US forces in East Asia "will have a great impact on Japan's security".

JAPAN'S EXPANDING ROLE

The report notes that one characteristic of Japan's new defence posture is "the emphasis it places on cooperation with Japan's ally the United States and the international community, and more active involvement in global security problems".  It concludes: "In a highly globalized world [Japan's Self-Defence Forces] specializing only on the defence of the homeland can hardly defend Japan's overall security.  The SDF must expand and deepen international cooperation and deal with regional and security problems."

AN ENGLISH-LANGUAGE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE EAST ASIAN STRATEGIC REVIEW 2006 CAN BE DOWNLOADED FROM THE FOLLOWING LINK:

http://www.nids.go.jp/english/dissemination/east-asian/pdf/east-asian_e2006s.pdf