Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In two weeks time, the Palestinian Authority will seek formal recognition of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations as a means of pushing Israel towards a peace agreement based on the 1967 border.

Any conceivable agreement with the Palestinians would have to include demilitarization, but opponents have long argued that any demilitarization agreement for the West Bank would face unique practical diffulties.  For instance, opponents argue, in time of crisis a strong Palestinian police force in cooperation with irregular forces would have little difficulty in seizing key dominating positions, and these could be quickly reinforced from across the Jordan River or Golan Heights by helicopter-borne commando units.

The other argument against relying upon demilitarization for security is the poor track record of previous demilitarization agreements, and the present situation in the Sinai (where Israel is faced with continuing instability or modifying the demilitarization provisions of the Camp David accords in favour of Egypt) is sure to bolster Israeli scepticism.

Unsuccessful demilitarizations include:

1.  The League of Nations mandates and the Naval Armament Limitation Treaty of 1922, which were breached by Japan and failed to prevent the gathering in the Kurile Islands of the forces that struck Pearl Harbour or the battle of Iwo Jima.

2.  The Straits Convention of 1923, demilitarizing the Turkish-controlled entrance to the Black Sea.  This was sought by Britain to ensure Royal Navy access to the Black Sea, but when Turkey demanded remilitarization, Britain had to acquiesce in 1936 out of fear that Turkey would join the German axis.

3.  The 1923 demilitarization of the Thracian frontier between Turkey, Greece, and Bulgaria.  The zone was remilitarized with the Balkan Entente 15 years later.

4.  The Treaty of Versailles and the Rhineland.  The German army marched into the Rhineland only 17 years after it had been demilitarized.

5.  Soviet agreements with Finland, in 1920 and 1922, and with Estonia in 1920.  The Soviet Union invaded Finland in 1939 (and again in 1941) and annexed Estonia in 1940.

6.  The Uqair protocol and the Haada agreement of 1922 and 1925.  The demilitarization clauses of the British-sponsored agreements between Iraq, Transjordan, and Nejd (later Saudi Arabia) were total failures.

Truly successful demilitarizations are hard to come by.  The Convention of Karlsbad of 1905 demilitarizing 200 miles of the Norwegian-Swedish border cannot really be described as a success as there was no prospect of war between the two countries in any case.

The demilitarizations of Aland Islands is also sometimes cited as successful, but the Russian violated the 1856 treaty by refortifying the islands at the outbreak of World War 1.  The British also breached provisions against naval establishments by basing submarines there, and the Finns built defences on the islands in 1939 and 1940 during the Winter War with the Soviet Union in contravention of the 1921 convention forbidding fortification.

That leaves the Sinai peninsula, demilitarized under the provisions of the Camp David Accord which returned the peninsula to Egypt.  Thirty-three years on, it is these provisions that are now under discussion, with Israel facing the Catch-22 of either allowing a modification of the demilitarization provisions or accepting continuing instability and lack of security in the Sinai.