Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Over the past few weeks we have been highlighting Russia’s criticisms of Nato’s actions in Libya, which it sees as a “gross violation” of UN Security Council Resolution 1973.  Last week Russia’s Nato envoy Dmitriy Rogozin complained that Nato is “placing itself on the same level” as the UN when it comes to deciding “when to start a war and when to end it”.  During the past week, Rogozin has continued with his criticisms, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used a joint press conference with Brazilian Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota to associate the Bric countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) with the criticisms.

Rogozin’s latest outburst came in an interview with the EU Observer published online on 2 September.  Interestingly, though, Rogozin did see a silver lining for Russia, saying that the war in Libya “marks the end of Nato’s eastwards expansion”.  He said: “From now on, Nato will expand its southern borders and will direct its efforts to the south, to traditional Islamic societies.”  He added that this was “an oil war” and that Libya was just the first country in what has become a “new crusade” for Nato.  For Rogozin, the reason is that the West has failed to find a solution to the economic crisis and “is trying to procure cheap hydrocarbons for its economy”.  Any other explanation, he said, was “laughable”.

The key point is that Rogozin, and other influential Russian policymakers, clearly believe this - and what people believe to be true is as important as what is actually true.  For Rogozin, Russia “cannot trust Nato now”.

As an aside, it is also Rogozin’s view that the Libyan intervention will increase anti-Western Islamic radicalism in the Middle East and in Europe itself.  This is, of course, the exact opposite of the Western hope that intervention on behalf of popular uprisings will lance the anti-Western boil.

Foreign Minister Lavrov’s comments, made on 4 September at a joint press conference in Moscow with his Brazilian counterpart, reflect Russia’s attempt to rally opposition to Nato.  He prefaced his remarks by saying the Russia and Brazil are “actively involved in the formation of a new polycentric world order”.  Then, more specifically, he reiterated Rogozin’s criticisms of the way in which Nato has unilaterally widened the scope of UN Resolution 1973 authorizing the protection of civilians in Libya by way of a no-fly zone.  He said: “If everything depends on the Brics countries, there will be no repetition of the Libyan scenario [in Syria].  I do not think the UN Security Council will be watching so indifferently what is happening to its resolutions.”

Interestingly, in China there has been some domestic criticism of Beijing’s slowness in recognizing Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC).  There is a fear that Chinese investments in Libya could be at risk because it is seen to have been sympathetic to the losing side, and that it will miss out on reconstruction opportunities.  However, the tabloid mouthpiece of the Communist Party, the Global Times, has written openly what is no doubt being communicated more subtly in private, namely that if the NTC “fails to protect Chinese interests in Libya...it is bound to pay a price”.