Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Last Wednesday (12 October) despite Chinese objections, India and Vietnam signed an agreement to promote oil exploration in the South China Sea.  In a reminder that actions speak louder than words, the deal was signed only a day after Vietnam and China had signed their own agreement on basic principles guiding “the settlement of sea-related issues”, which they pledged to solve “through friendly talks and negotiations”.

he India-Vietnam deal was signed in New Delhi by Vietnam’s President Truong Tan Sang and India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.  The Indian prime minister said: “India and Vietnam are maritime neighbours.  We face common security challenges from terrorism, piracy, and natural disasters.  We believe that it is important to ensure the safety and security of vital sea lanes of communication.”

China says that Indian exploration projects in Vietnamese blocks in the South China Sea are in areas claimed by China.  Last month, an editorial in the ruling Communist Party’s Global Times called the joint-exploration “a serious political provocation” and said “China should try every means possible to stop this cooperation from happening.”  It accused India of “seeking influence akin to US in the region”.

Meanwhile, on India’s other flank, Pakistan is continuing to grumble about the Strategic Partnership signed the week before between India and Afghanistan.  Pakistan is justifiably worried that Indian involvement in Afghanistan will boost the Northern Alliance at the expense of the Pakistan-supported Taleban and that India will deepen its involvement with the Afghan military.  As Pakistan’s army chief General Kayani put it some while ago: “Strategically, we cannot have an army on the western border which has an Indian mindset.”

But now Pakistan is trying to get Beijing to see the India-Afghan partnership as a significant strategic setback for China as well as for Pakistan.  Islamabad is telling Beijing that a purpose of the India-Afghan accord is to exclude China from the development of Afghanistan, including from the exploitation of oil and mineral resources.

This Pakistani recourse to China when faced with an external challenge is beginning to be a familiar pattern.  In the main briefing in our 28 September issue we looked at how Pakistan has turned to China to help it resist US pressure over its support for militant groups in Aghanistan.