Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

  Turkey shrugs off Europe.  The reaction in Turkey to the latest European Union (EU) report on Turkey’s progress towards membership, published on 12 October, has been as we suggested it would be: indifference.  The general feeling was well summed up by the centrist Vatan newspaper, which wrote: “Putting the efforts of the EU ministry aside, the government’s domestic and foreign policy preferences tell us that the EU has no real relevance and importance for Turkey and the region.” 

The centre-right Sabah also noted that the US is no longer concerned about Turkey joining the EU.  It wrote: “Just as in Turkey, this issue no longer elicits any more excitement in the US government compared with before.  For Washington...the role and importance of Turkey within the framework of Nato and the Middle East now has greater weight than the EU issue.”

The EU report encouraged Turkey to continue with accession talks, but it admitted that no progress had been made in the last year.  It also expressed concerns about tension between Turkey and Cyprus (which is a EU member), and in a reference to tensions over oil-drilling rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, it said that Ankara should avoid threats that might damage ties any further.

  China and Europe.  The week-end saw reports of secret negotiations between the European Union and China over saving the euro.  That China is seeking to increase its influence over Europe by exploiting current financial difficulties is certain.  But China’s importance to Europe is also increasing organically. 
The latest trade statistics from Eurostat, for July, show that China has overtaken the US as the EU’s largest trade partner.  Trade between China and the EU totalled 35.6bn euros in July, surpassing trade between the US and the EU by 800m euros and accounting for 13.4% of Europe’s total trade.  EU exports to China totalled 11.7bn euros while its imports came to 23.9bn euros to give a trade deficit of 12.2bn euros.

  Jordan and the Muslim Brotherhood.  Jordan has a new prime miniser, Dr Aoun al-Khasawna, and there are signs that his appointment will lead to a concerted effort to seek a rapprochement with the Muslim Brotherhood.  On 19 October, just one day after his appointment, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), which is the political wing of the MB in Jordan, said it was willing to hold a dialogue.  Zaki Ben Rsheid, head of the IAF politburo, said: “We rejected dialogue with former premier Maruf al-Bakhit, but with al-Khasawna things look different, depending on his agenda and determination to achieve real reform.”