Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In our 9 November issue we reported that the contest for the 4 December Russian general election was tightening.  The latest polls show that United Russia’s support, at 51%, is now below the level it enjoyed at the last parliamentary elections in 2007 and that this fall in support is mirrored by a similar decline in popularity for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (who will stand for a third term as president in March).  Putin’s approval rating has dropped from 80% to 61% since May 2010.

The past week has seen a well-publicized episode in which Putin was booed by a significant section of the crowd while at a martial arts contest in Moscow on 20 November.  Clips of the incident on YouTube have attracted at least 500,000 viewings and over 8,000 comments, mostly negative about Putin.

Our own sources still do not believe there is any great threat to Putin’s grip on power, but the growing disillusion needs watching.  The overpowering sense is one of disillusion and cynicism in the electorate.  A recent Levada Centre poll showed that 67% feel vulnerable to abuse of power by the authorities such as police, tax officers, the courts and other state organs.  An even higher percentage, 85%, believe that the majority of today’s Russian politicians engage in politics only for personal gain.  United Russia is set to win the elections, but not the hearts and minds of the electorate.