Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood “model of success” for Jordan.  The secretary-general of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Mahmud Husayn Ahmad, visited Amman in Jordan on 19 November for a conference on ‘Islamists and Governance’. 

On the eve of elections in Egypt that the MB is set to win (if they are held), Ahmad told his Jordanian audience: “We hope that this will finally be our first time to take part in free and fair elections and this historical moment will also be shared in Jordan.”  He urged the Jordanian MB to adopt a similar platform to its Egyptian counterpart, namely combating corruption, alleviating poverty, pushing for political reform, and the raising of public freedoms.  Ahmad said: “By addressing the basic demands of the people – Muslims and non-Muslims alike – the Jordanian Islamist movement can be successful in any future elections.”

Ahmad also urged the Jordanian MB to reach out to other political forces such as the tribes, women’s organizations, and youth movements.  Jordan’s Islamist movement, the political arm of which is the Islamic Action Front, has said that it will only participate in upcoming municipal and parliamentary elections if its demands for reform, including constitutional amendments, are met.  It has recently moved back from dialogue with the authorities in favour of popular action on the streets.  The IAF and the MB have called for a public sit-in in front of the prime minister’s office on 28 November to demand the release of political prisoners.

*** Threat from Caucasus jihadists to Turkey.  Dokka Umarov, leader of the jihadist Caucasus Emirate in southern Russia, issued a warning in a video clip posted on YouTube on 20 November.  In the clip, Umarov begins by saying: “I want to appeal to the people of Turkey, to my brothers, to Turkish Muslims, to Turkish special forces, officials, President Gul, and Prime Minister Recep Erdogan.”  He thanks Turkey for providing sanctuary to exiled jihadist rebels from the Caucasus, but then he says that many are being killed in Turkey by Russian agents (“killers, slaves”) and that “we know that they are being killed because of the connivance of your current leadership, your special services”.  He said that, judging by the ease with which these agents operated in Turkey, “the Russians have effectively taken Istanbul away from you”.  Finally he warned that if Turkey did not take measures against these Russian agents: “We ourselves will take the necessary measures.  Let there be no doubt about this.”

*** Rise in Russian extremist crime.  According to Russia’s Deputy Prosecutor-General Viktor Grin, terrorist crime is up 14% so far in 2011.  The number of extremist crimes in the country has risen threefold over the last five years.  Extremist crimes fall into two main categories: actions by religious and separatist organizations and the activities of Russian nationalists.