Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Gaza looks to Turkey to restore Ottoman legacy.  In a highly symbolic move, the Hamas administration in the Gaza Strip has reportedly asked Turkey to construct 15 Ottoman-style mosques in the Gaza Strip and to restore or rebuild 162 mosques damaged in the conflict with Israel.  Gaza was a part of the Ottoman Empire from 1516 until 1917.

*** Israel prepares for CBRN attacks.  Israel is to hold a series of exercises in the coming months to prepare the population for a possible attack using chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons (CBRN). 

This week there is the annual Orange Flame exercise for a biological attack, which will be held in Tiberias, Afula, and Nazareth.  Part of the exercise will entail doctors trying to identify the agent used from the symptoms presented by casualties.  Another exercise, to be held in January, will simulate a ‘dirty bomb’ attack in Haifa.  Concerns about a terrorist attack using chemical weapons have increased as a result of the unrest in Syria, which is thought to have an arsenal of chemical weapons including mustard gas, sarin, and VX gas.

*** Russian popular opinion split on Nato.  Russia’s ruling elite (see today’s second briefing) is deeply suspicious of Nato.  However, public opinion seems to be more or less evenly divided, according to an opinion poll carried out by the All-Russia Centre for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM). 

Thirty-four per cent of respondents to a recent survey said that Nato represents a threat to Russia, down from 41% in 2009.  This is the same percentage of people who do not see Nato as a real danger.  On the other hand, only 8% of Russians view Nato as a partner for Russia.

*** Indian allegations fuel Pakistani suspicions after Nato attack.  The Nato attack just after midnight on 26 November on two border posts in north-west Pakistan killed 24 soldiers and has sparked a major breach between Pakistan and Nato.  Interestingly, there is an Indian angle to the controversy.  On the same day as the attack, India issued a statement accusing Pakistan of violating the ceasefire along the Kashmir Line of Control by firing at three Indian border posts.  Also on the same day, India’s External Affairs Minister SM Krishna called for Pakistan to bring the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attack to justice swiftly.  Some in Pakistan have seen this as evidence of a “synchronized” move by Nato and India to put pressure on Pakistan.  An editorial in the pro-military Pakistan Observer said: “Both the Indian statements synchronize with the Nato air attacks which reflect a bigger Indo-US design to weaken and destabilize Pakistan which they consider as the main hurdle for imposing hegemony in the region.”  It added that the statements “clearly indicate that [India] is in league with the US in acts against Pakistan”.