Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The Russian general election produced more or less the result we had been indicating: a victory for United Russia but a loss of its constitutional majority.  The ruling party’s share of the vote has fallen from 64% in 2007 to 49%.  The awakening of the Russian electorate, in large part thanks to the efforts of anti-establishment internet campaigners such as Aleksey Navalnyy, is a welcome development in Russia, but it does nevertheless reinforce the view we have been expressing for some months, namely that relations between Russia and the West are set for an extended period of turbulence.

Our sources in Moscow believe the authorities will manage to contain the post-election demonstrations.  From what our sources are saying, there does not appear to be the necessary appetite on the part of the public for a ‘Slavic Spring’, while on the other hand the authorities certainly retain their determination to hang on to power.  Nevertheless, there has undoubtedly been a mood change and the legitimacy of the authorities is in decline.  One well-placed source has told us that the authorities will survive this test but that if reforms are not implemented before the next election the system will face an existential challenge.  A key marker will be corruption.

The success of the internet campaign against United Russia has been based around the slogan coined by Navalnyy that it is the “party of crooks and thieves”.  In the 2011 Corruption Perceptions Index published by Transparency International on 1 December, Russia was 143rd out of the 182 countries listed.  The allegations made by Navalnyy on his blog spilled over into the political debate on mainstream television despite the tight control, or at least influence, over the main television channels exercised by the state.  The slogan was taken up in one form or another by all the main opposition groups including the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), and A Just Russia (AJR).

LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovskiy stated on television that under United Russia “the whole police force is corrupt, along with the FSB [Federal Security Service], and the Prosecutor’s Office”.  AJR ran an election poster with the slogan “We are for a Russia without crooks and thieves”.  And the Communist Party produced an advertisement complaining about the “pyramid of corruption” and showing money being passed from a policeman to a man in a suit to a judge.  The voiceover added: “They’ve built a pyramid of corruption.  The system is devouring the country...” 

There is no doubt that it was the anti-corruption slant of the opposition campaign, ably amplified as it was by the blogging community, that undermined United Russia’s support.  Now Vladimir Putin, who is seeking to regain the presidency in March after a term as prime minister, appears to be following a three-pronged strategy to overcome this setback.  First, he is using the usual methods to cow the opposition.  Secondly, he is trying to put some distance between himself and United Russia.  In an interview earlier this week with the BBC, his press secretary Dmitriy Peskov said: “Putin has never been connected directly with the party, therefore he has been regarded as an independent politician, not as a member of the party.”  Thirdly, it is certain, as we argued last week, that Putin will play the nationalist card as strongly as he can in the run-up to the March presidential poll.

Further evidence of this latter point will be seen at this week’s Russia-Nato Council meeting in Brussels on 8 December.  On 7 December, Russia’s envoy to Nato, Dmitriy Rogozin, said: “We insist for a reaffirmation of the basic principles of international law.  We insist that Nato return to the legal field and realize its subordinate role in relation to the UN.” 

The continuing and strong Russian emphasis on Libya is, of course, linked to its parallel support for Syria.  On 6 December a squadron of the Northern Fleet, including the Admiral Kuznetsov cruiser and the anti-submarine warfare ship Admiral Chabanenko, set sail for the Eastern Mediterranean on a mission that will include a visit to the Syrian port of Tartus.  Commenting on the deployment last week, former Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Viktor Kravchenko said that having a naval force in the Eastern Mediterranean to balance Nato’s presence was very useful because it would “prevent the outbreak of armed conflict”, by which he meant a Nato intervention in Syria.