Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Sources in Pakistan say that jihadist groups in are stepping up their efforts to prevent a rapprochement between Pakistan and the United States, and the reopening of Nato supply routes to Afghanistan, three weeks after a Nato bombing raid on two Pakistani border posts killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.  The jihadists are worried by moves by the Pakistani military establishment to reduce their conditions for a restoration of relations, which had included a fulsome US apology and punishment for the Nato officials involved in the raid.

The latest manifestation of this increased jihadist activity was a rally led by Jamaat-ud-Daawa (JuD) on 18 December in Lahore.  The rally was attended by, amongst others, controversial former Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief Hamid Gul.  The rally promised a huge campaign of protest if the Nato supply route is reopened.  Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) held another rally in Peshawar, while the more moderate Minhjul Quran organized a “public awareness” event in Rawalpindi.

The jihadist groups are concerned by signs of a thaw in relations such as the return of Pakistani liaison officers at border coordination centres.  The Pakistan military has also changed its tune on the deadly attack, now blaming an Afghan commander for the incident and suggesting that he may have been acting on the orders of Indian and Afghan intelligence with the specific aim of creating tension between Nato and Pakistan.  Pointing the finger at India could be a way of trying to deflect the attention of the jihadist groups which are, if anything, even more anti-India than they are anti-US.

The US ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, has been in full damage-limitation mode, attending an inter-faith dialogue in Islamabad on 19 December, joining prayers for the dead soldiers, and meeting with Imran Khan, the charismatic former cricketer who heads Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf, to ask his help in improving ties between Pakistan and the US.  In another sign of the US’s desperation to restore ties, the CIA has suspended the firing of missiles from drones at suspected militant targets in Pakistani tribal areas.