Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Israel’s largest-ever missile-defence exercise planned for the spring.  It has been reported in Israel that last week the commander of the US’s Third Air Force based in Germany, Lt-Gen Frank Gorenc, visited Israel to discuss the anti-missile exercise which could involve the deployment of “several thousand” US troops to Israel.  The exercise will reportedly combine the US’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) and its ship-based Aegis ballistic missile defence system with Israel’s own missile-defence systems: the Arrow, Patriot, and Iron Dome.  Separately, Israel is moving ahead with plans to deploy the David’s Sling missile-defence system from Rafael, which is designed to counter medium-range rockets and cruise missiles.  The Jerusalem Post has reported that the first David’s Sling interception test will be in mid-2012.

*** Assad looks to the Kurds.  According to Turkish sources, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has agreed that a Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) affiliated television station, Roj TV, that may be banned in Denmark, could move to Damascus.  Assad seems to be courting the PKK as a means of getting at Turkey for its support for the Syrian opposition and as a possible prop for his regime.  Turkey is concerned that Assad may have agreed to the establishment of PKK camps in Aleppo governorate.  In return for allowing the camps, the PKK has, it is said, agreed to help prevent anti-regime demonstrations in the Kurdish regions of Syria.  The case against Roj TV in Denmark was initiated in August 2010 after years of Turkish pressure.  It is charged with helping to promote the PKK.

If these reports are correct, two points arise.  The first is that it will make Ankara even more determined to bring about the overthrow of Assad (it will be recalled that Turkey nearly went to war with Syria in 1998 over its support for the PKK, and Assad’s father was forced to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan).  The second point is that it may in any event be too late for Assad.  According to Israeli reports, over 10,000 Syrian soldiers have deserted, and even if the higher levels of the military remain loyal there is growing dissatisfaction among the rank-and-file and lower officer corps.  In another indication, it is said that the top leaders of the Palestinian Hamas group have left Damascus.

*** Indian president spells out naval ambitions.  India’s President Pratibha Patil undertook a ‘Presidential Fleet Review’ on 20 December.  The ceremony is performed once in every presidential term.  She reviewed a fleet of 81 ships and 44 aircraft and proclaimed: “The Indian Navy is one of the most capable in the region, and with its well thought out moderation plans it is destined to grow even further.”  She added: “I am confident that our fleet is fully prepared to meet any challenges that may threaten the maritime security of our nation in the future.”