Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The row between the United States and Egypt over the treatment of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) has confirmed how fragile the US-Egypt alliance now is, and in particular it has undermined the conceit that the need for American aid will automatically ensure the acquiescence of any new Egyptian government.

The NGO affair began in December when Egyptian security officials raided the offices of 10 pro-democracy and human rights groups, confiscating documents and equipment.  These raids led to charges that NGOs have been financing popular protests on the basis of illegal funding.  The controversy has been made worse by the fact that of the 43 defendants in the case, 16 are US citizens of whom seven have been prevented from leaving Egypt.  One of those restricted is Sam LaHood, who is son of Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.  Not surprisingly, US anger has led to threats to restrict the $1.3bn in military aid due this year along with another $250m in economic assistance.

The interesting point for us is how counter-productive the threat to cut off aid has been in Egypt.  Rather than bringing Cairo immediately into line it has provided sustenance to those who argue that Egypt should no longer be so beholden to the US.  With the Islamist tendency winning a clear majority in the first free post-revolution elections, Friday sermons in the main mosques have taken on added significance.  Last Friday, the sermon at Al-Sultan Abu-al-‘lla Mosque in Cairo was delivered by Sheikh Abd-al-Hakam Salih Salamah who condemned those countries that provide aid for other nations in order to “impose their hegemony on other people”.  He added that such donors (by which of course he meant the United States) “leave agents and spies [in our countries] under the name of NGOs, giving them free rein to spread havoc and corruption and cause confusion and complexity among people”.  The sheikh concluded by saying that “dignity and honour” are more important than such aid.

In this, the sheikh was only mirroring public opinion.  Opinion polls show that 71% of Egyptians believe Egypt does not need American money and that, in any event, they could get the same amount from Arab states.  This is a position that is apparently supported by Prime Minister Kamal al-Ganzouri.

The Muslim Brotherhood has not yet said that it does not want American aid.  It has, after all, to deliver some material advancement to the people who voted so overwhelmingly for it.  However, the deputy head of the MB’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), Essam al-Aryan, has said that the ending of American aid would lead to a review of the Camp David accords with Israel, which is presumably an outcome he would welcome.  Gamal Hishmat, a Brotherhood parliamentarian who sits on the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs says: “Even with the threat to the US aid, we are not intimidated in the way the previous regime used to be.”

In the meantime, Israel has said that it fears the Islamization of the Sinai Bedouin under the influence of Egypt’s Salafi movement.  The danger here is with links to the Salafist groups in the Gaza Strip, in particular the groups seeking to implement their Islamic agenda by violent means.  There are said to be up to a “few thousand” Gazan Salafists linked with five armed groups: Jund Ansar Allah, Jaysh-Al-Islam, Tawhid Wal Jihad, Ansar Al-Sunna, and Jaljalat.  These groups seem to be responsible for most of the current rocket attacks on Israel, ignoring ceasefires agreed by Hamas.

One Salafist cleric in Gaza has told a Courcy’s Intelligence Brief source:  “They [Egyptian Salafists] have come to visit us, they’ve financed projects for the poor.”  The Egyptian Salafist al-Nour party was the unexpected success of the Egyptian election, taking 27% of the vote and coming second to the FJP.  For some jihadist Salafis from Gaza, al-Qaeda is the inspiration.  One young Gazan Salafist, Abu Hass al-Maqdisi, speaking in late February, said: “[Al-Qaeda’s] is the path of justice, the right path of Islam, and the way back to the days of the Salafs [the prophet Mohammed’s companions].  Another - Abu Mohammad - added: “We have international contacts with al-Qaeda.  They train us, particularly teaching us to organize ourselves, and of course they finance us.”  Then, emphasizing the importance of the Sinai, Abu Mohammad said: “For us and for al-Qaeda, Sinai is an objective.”

A complicating factor is that since Hamas has expressed its support for the rebellion in Syria, ostensibly re-orienting itself towards its Muslim Brotherhood roots and away from Iran, it is possible that Iran is now encouraging (and financing) the connection between al-Qaeda and the Gazan jihadi Salafists.  The complications in, and with Egypt continue to multiply.  JdeC.