Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

As the campaign in the West intensifies for something to be done to stop the brutal suppression of the Syrian rebellion by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, we have been receiving indications of a greater willingness in Turkey to intervene.  If these indications are accurate, it is a significant development.

The talk in Ankara is that Turkey is preparing to lead the setting up of a humanitarian corridor into Syria without the backing of the UN, as happened in Kosovo in 1999.  The trigger, a Turkish official says, would be if the humanitarian problems in Syria were to reach “unbearable dimensions”, and on 27 February Turkey’s National Security Council (MGK) issued a statement saying that the international community should not remain indifferent to “mass massacres” in Syria.  It is thought in Ankara (and, as it happens, in Beijing) that Russia may weaken its opposition to an intervention once its 4 March presidential election is over.  Such a move would have the strong support of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states as well as of the West.

It is important to note, however, that there is also strong opposition within Turkey to an intervention.  The idea of Turkey putting itself forward as a power “that establishes order” is considered by some, including some close to the government, as a dangerous development that could undermine the careful building of Turkish ‘soft power’ since the Arab Awakening – in which Turkey is advancing itself as the model to be emulated.  Opponents say that the fact that any intervention would be carried out under a banner of humanitarianism rather than regime change would count for little in the long-term.

Then there is the problem of falling out with Iran, and here there are real dangers too.  Iran has been making a concerted effort to establish its presence in Turkey in order to help with sanctions-busting, but this could equally be turned into destabilization efforts.  For instance, as of 31 December 2011, there were 2,140 Iranian-funded companies operating in Turkey, 590 of which (nearly 30%) were set up in 2011 alone.  The presence of many of these companies is not innocent.

It is also doubtful that Russia will significantly change its tune following the election.  If anything its fears about war in the Middle East have been rising since the escalation in the spat between Iran and Azerbaijan.  On 12 February, Iran accused Azerbaijan of allowing Israel to use its territory in its campaign of assassinations against Iranian nuclear scientists.  A week later, police in Azerbaijan said that they had arrested people linked to Iran and Hezbollah planning attacks in the country.  Then, on 28 February, Iran issued furious complaints about a $1.6bn Israeli arms sale to Azerbaijan, railing against “the creeping influence of Zionists and foreigners in the South Caucasus region”.

On 29 February, the head of the Russian-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States anti-terrorism centre, Andrey Novikov, warned specifically about “destabilization in the Caspian Sea area and in the South Caucasus” as an inevitable consequence of war with Iran.  And given Iran’s strong backing for Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, a military intervention in Syria cannot be isolated from the threat of war with Iran.