Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In our 25 April briefing we said that the 2012 French presidential election could prove to be about a far more significant shift in French political forces than just a surge in support for the National Front, and that it reinforced our view that European integration has passed its high-water mark.  That view has been further reinforced by the outcome of the Greek general election.  However, even before these results were known, the depth of the pessimism within the European Union could be seen in the recently published Global Trends 2030 report, produced for the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) by the European Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).

The Global Trends 2030 report was an attempt to identify key factors that should inform EU strategic decision making over the next two decades.  There are some interesting bits about the expanding global middle class (expected to number 4.9bn by 2030); the empowerment of individuals through technology; resource scarcity; and the emergence of a more polycentric world.  The end of superpower hegemony, the report points out, is having a ‘decompression effect’, giving “all states of all dimensions greater freedom of manoeuvre in the international arena”.  This, the report says, will create new opportunities for middle powers to play a greater role globally and at the regional level in particular.

Some of these are valuable insights, but what caught our attention most was the pessimism that permeated the sections about the EU itself.  The report called the future of the EU “uncertain” because of structural problems, particularly the shrinking demographics; the difficulties with facilitating economic governance and achieving “policy-making coherence and consensus”; and the shift in trade and economic flows from the Atlantic to the Pacific which “may contribute to the relative marginalization of the EU”.  The EU, which is today the world’s primary economic entity, will slip to third place by 2030, and for it to remain in the ranks of the top powers the report says “its member states must join forces (and unite voices) effectively and coherently” - which is, of course, exactly what is not happening.

In another sign of pessimism, the report says that in a more polycentric world, the EU’s middle powers such as Germany, France, and Britain, may be tempted “to play a global role of their own”.  It notes that China and Brazil are both already making it clear that Germany rather than the EU is a more effective strategic partner, and that the EU “is a key market but not a relevant strategic actor”.  The report also notes that “the image of the EU as a political actor is also eroding in India”.  And the report raises the spectre of extremist nationalism, to which it says “Europe in particular is vulnerable” because of fears about the future among the middle classes, the demographic transition, and difficulties in adapting to more multicultural societies.

According to the report, a final, and again intensely interesting cause for growing pessimism in Europe relates to Russia.  It notes that the main strategic aims of China, India, Brazil, and most middle powers will be “peaceful accumulation of power and economic development”.  However, it says, “the exception may be Russia if nationalistic trends prevail” – and this danger is compounded by US withdrawal from Europe and European defence cuts.