Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Clinton explains Israel’s stance on Iran to India.  It would be going much too far to say that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has given support to the idea of an Israeli strike against Iran, but comments she made in India on 7 May were understanding of Israel’s position.

Speaking in Calcutta about the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran, she said: “India knows from its own experience that you have to pay attention to threat and that you have to be prepared for them in your own neighbourhood.  So I think that Israel is very worried that if Iran gets a nuclear weapon there might be a decision by some future leader to actually use it, and that would be devastating.”

*** Iran trying to bolster Hezbollah support.  On 7 February, the leader of the Lebanese-based Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, pronounced “Iran does not command us” in an apparent attempt to put some distance between his group and Iran as the controversy over the Iranian nuclear programme escalated.

In Israel this comment was taken as a sign that Hezbollah was running scared and would not launch a retaliatory attack in response to an Israeli strike against Iran.  Then again, on 16 February, Nasrallah denied a Hezbollah role in the attempted attacks against Israeli targets in Georgia, India, and Thailand in what was seen in intelligence circles as another signal from Nasrallah that he does not want to get involved in the looming confrontation between Israel and Iran.

Now Iran’s Vice-President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi has been in Lebanon to see Nasrallah and to stiffen his support for Iran.  They met on 3 May to discuss “the political situation in the region and Israel’s threats to the region’s states and peoples”.  It is not known what was said in private, but Nasrallah announced that Hezbollah was ready to confront “all forthcoming challenges” and that it “remains steadfast in its policy and path”.

*** China first deep-water drilling rig becomes operational.  On 9 May, China’s first deep-water drilling rig was due to become operational, operating 320km southeast of Hong Kong in 1,500 metres of water.  Making the announcement, the official Xinhua news agency noted that about 70% of the oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea are contained in deep-water regions with depths over 300 metres.

Xinhua said that the South China Sea is estimated to have 23bn-30bn tonnes of oil and 16trn cubic metres of natural gas – which it said amounted to one-third of China’s total oil and gas resources.  It did not mention that China’s right to these resources is disputed.