Courcy's Future Threats - 12 June 2012

In recent months Kenya has been waging a double headed war against Islamist terrorists (see our March issue). It has military forces deployed across the border in Somalia, and it has been facing an increasing threat from Al-Shabaab’s wing based in North Eastern Province. On 10 June Kenya’s internal security minister George Saitoti, a key figure in the fight against Al-Shebaab, was killed in a helicopter crash.

Al-Shebaab immediately took to Twitter to say “[Al-Shebaab] welcomes the death of the evil minister upon whose authorisation thousands of Muslims suffered both in Somalia and in Kenya”.

Al-Shebaab is desperate to capitalise on discontent among the mostly Muslim ethnic Somalis in North Eastern Province to recruit for its Kenyan wing, and to attract fighters to join its forces in Somalia.

The cause of the crash has not yet been determined, but it seems unlikely that it was due to terrorist action. At the time of writing no group has claimed credit for bringing down the helicopter and Al-Shebaab would not miss the opportunity to boast of its strength had it been responsible.

Saitoti’s successor at the internal security ministry has not yet been named, but unfortunately for Al-Shebaab whoever takes the job is unlikely to take a softer line in counterterrorism policy. The majority Christian population of Kenya are still supportive of the government’s efforts, despite the increase in terrorist violence since Kenyan troops were deployed in Somalia. Indeed, evidence from other countries around the world that have faced domestic terrorism shows that popular support for taking a hard line on counterterrorism tends to increase after incidents, rather than decrease as Al-Shebaab would like.

“For the hundreds of Muslims killed and displaced by Kenya's brutal invasion, Saitoti’s death is but a droplet of justice in a sea of oppression. The remaining invaders should be expectant that Allah will inflict his punishment by himself upon the kuffar (infidels) or by the hands of mujahideen.”

Al-Shebaab on Twitter