Weekly Report - 14 June 2012 (WR-12-23)

Enrique Peña Nieto entered the second and final televised debate on 10 June knowing that anything short of a decisive defeat would surely be sufficient to return the opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) to government after a 12-year hiatus. He did not particularly excel in the debate but neither did he commit any gaffes. Instead, with a large lead in the polls, he concentrated on presenting his campaign proposals, and refused to be drawn into mudslinging with his rivals. This predominantly came from Josefina Vázquez Mota, of the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), who, desperate to halt her downwards trajectory in the polls, gave a feisty performance in the debate. There were no fireworks from Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the left-wing Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), who, having eclipsed her in the polls, was more concerned about appearing moderate and credible.

The debate was split into three sections: politics and economics; foreign policy; and sustainable development and social issues. Peña Nieto made the populist gesture of promising to cut the size of the chamber of deputies from 500 to 400 and the senate from 128 to 96 to streamline the political system. Intent on showing his caring side after being savaged as “cold” and showing “no heart” during a recent event organised by the poet and peace activist Javier Sicilia [WR-12-21], Peña Nieto also outlined his (still slightly vague) proposal for a universal social security system. He lamented the fact that half of Mexicans lived in poverty and argued that Mexico’s GDP growth under the PAN (2000-2011) was just 2.2% a year; only El Salvador, he said, had fared worse over this period in the region.

Taking a longer view of history, López Obrador said Mexico’s economic stagnation began under the PRI government of Miguel de la Madrid (1982-1988). Not coincidentally, 1988 was the year in which López Obrador opted to leave the PRI. His membership of the PRI before this date, however, formed part of the fierce attack launched by Vázquez Mota in which she argued that both of her opponents were scions of the corrupt PRI of the past. She argued that as the PRI and the PRD were two sides of the same coin, there were only really two choices in the elections: the PAN or the old PRI model.

Vázquez Mota questioned López Obrador’s sudden professed affinity with Mexican students, which she said rested on some highly dubious foundations. She called on him to explain why in 1971 he had joined the PRI just after the notorious student massacre in Tlatelolco in 1968 and the Corpus Christi massacre exactly 41 years before the day of the debate (10 June 1971). López Obrador said she had got the date of his membership of the PRI wrong: he joined the PRI in 1976 to collaborate in Carlos Pellicer’s campaign for a senate seat for the state of Tabasco. Still, Vázquez Mota’s barb definitely drew blood and just might have prompted some members of the #YoSoy132 student movement that has rallied behind López Obrador to think twice.

The problem for Vázquez Mota is that key figureheads in her own party are undermining her campaign. While she sought to make the case that the PRI would bring about a return to authoritarianism, consorting with organised crime and abusing power, and that the PRD would bring populism and economic crisis, former president Vicente Fox (2000-2006), the man who ended seven decades of PRI hegemony in Mexico no less, urged voters to “close ranks” behind Peña Nieto if he wins on 1 July, adding that it was “clear” he was going to win.

President Felipe Calderón could not resist getting involved in the debate either. When López Obrador promised 6% GDP growth and 1.2m new jobs each year, while saving M$314bn (US$22bn) by cutting the salaries of top officials, Calderón tweeted that his figures simply did not add up. “If the government fired every top official, from director to president, it would save M$2bn not M$300bn,” he said.

Calderón’s intervention did force López Obrador after the debate to produce a document showing how he came by the figure of M$314bn. The document put up on his coalition’s website was short on details but it included a pie chart showing how the savings would be split, including reducing the salaries of top government officials and civil servants at state institutions and autonomous entities. It calculated that M$175bn of the total would be saved, however, through cutting government operating costs. 

López Obrador opted for a different tactic in the second debate, outlining proposals and going on the defensive, as if he were the frontrunner, rather than launching attacks on Peña Nieto. He seemed intent on conveying the impression of moderation but it was a somewhat surprising performance given that #YoSoy132 had staged a protest against Peña Nieto earlier in the day and allegations of PRI corruption and collusion with organised crime have been proliferating. The day after the debate, the PRI jettisoned one of its municipal candidates in the southern state of Chiapas, Ulises Grajales Niño, after he was arrested on suspicion of involvement in the murder of PAN activist, Edgar Hernández Corzo. The PRI president, Pedro Joaquín Coldwell, put out a statement insisting that the party “does not support any militants that engage in illegal acts”.