Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Since the diplomatic furore over the failed test of a long-range rocket in April, North Korea seems to be on something of a diplomatic offensive.

On 15 May, North Korea’s number two, Kim Yong-nam, visited Indonesia and Singapore for discussions on trade and investment.  On 5 June, Cambodia’s Foreign Minister Hor Namhong visited Pyongyang for talks about how to resume the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear programme.  A delegation led by a secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, Kim Yong-il, has been visiting Laos, Vietnam, and Burma.  And Pyongyang has accepted an invitation to attend the 19th Asean Regional Forum in July.

Trying to divine what is happening within North Korea’s policymaking inner circles is usually unproductive, but sources in the region do believe there could be a power struggle going on between the hawks and doves around the new leader Kim Jong-un.

The military seems determined to protect its position in the state by keeping up tensions with South Korea.  And, as we reported last week, South Korean sources say that they have discerned “an unusual amount of military activity” recently.  Kim Jong-un is said to have ordered an increase in the duration of military exercises, and Pyongyang has also been increasing its anti-Seoul propaganda through China-based social networking services.  On the other hand, the North’s foreign ministry said last week that there were no plans to carry out a nuclear test, which was seen as a conciliatory gesture.

The power struggle, if that is indeed is what is happening, could be further influenced by divisions over how to approach the final stages of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s term, which ends next February, and the associated election of his successor in December.  Another possible factor putting pressure on Pyongyang is the fact that South Korea has been improving its own relations with regional countries that have traditionally been relatively supportive of North Korea, such as Indonesia, Cambodia, and Burma.

Indonesia, which claims to be “neutral” on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, is deepening ties with Seoul.  It will have been noted in Pyongyang, for instance, that when Indonesia’s President Susilo Bambang Yudyohono visited South Korea for the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit from 26-27 May, he was the only one of 53 visiting world leaders to be treated as a “state guest”.  South Korea and Indonesia are also to sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with a view to increasing bilateral trade to $50bn by 2015 and $100bn by 2020.

Trade between Cambodia and South Korea is also surging, up 35% in the first quarter of 2012, and recently South Korea donated 200 military trucks to Cambodia.  As for Burma, last month President U Thein Sein met South Korea’s President Lee Myung-bak and reportedly promised not to buy any more weapons from Pyongyang.  As part of its opening up, Burma is set to develop economic cooperation with South Korea and to collaborate in the development of energy and other resources.

Relations with China also appear to have cooled since Kim Jong-un came to power in December.  According to Beijing-based international relations professor Shi Yinhong, quoted by the Japanese news agency Kyodo, “China is unhappy with the new leadership because it has exhibited bad behaviour, such as proceeding with the [April long-range rocket] launch despite international opposition, repeating provocative actions against South Korea and showing few friendly signs toward China".  The professor added: "The launch caused deterioration in China's relations with North Korea.  Chinese leaders were disappointed and offended by North Korea's new leadership."

At the same time as this apparent deterioration in North Korea’s diplomatic posture, there is no weakening in the resolve of the US and South Korea to fend off any North Korean aggression.  On 14 June, South Korean and US defence and foreign ministers issued a joint statement pointing to North Korea’s continuing pattern of “defiance and provocative actions”, coupled with its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and they warned: “This behaviour will be met with solidarity from all threatened countries.”

On 22 June, US and South Korean forces are to conduct their biggest-ever joint artillery drill at Pocheon, timed to coincide with the 62nd anniversary of the beginning of the Korean War.  From 21-22 June, South Korea, Japan, and the US are due to stage a joint naval exercise in South Korean waters around the island of Jeju.  And on 18 June it was reported that US forces in South Korea (USFK) are increasing their capabilities with a plan to deploy surface-to-surface long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles and Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) artillery.  A USFK official said: “We are aiming to extensively reinforce the forces before the end of the year.”