Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Russian S-400 for China.  On 27 June, Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti reported that Russia may sell S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems.  China will receive an export version of the system that will be developed by 2017.  According to the agency, “the Chinese will be the first buyers of this system”.

*** Russian general says base in Tajikistan at risk.  The commander-in-chief of Russian Ground Troops, Col-Gen Vladimir Chirkin, said on 26 June that “there are many problems” with the signing of an agreement for the extension of the Russian military base in Tajikistan.  The Tajik side has apparently proposed to reduce the period of the extension to 10 years.  The 201st Russian Military Base in Tajikistan is home to 7,000 Russian troops and is a key component in Russia’s presence in Central Asia.

Speaking to the Defence and Security Committee of the Russian upper house of parliament, Chirkin also warned that “local military conflicts” involving Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan could erupt “in connection with the predicted deterioration of inter-state disagreements in the sphere of energy, water, and land use”.

*** A small Russian reminder to China.  Russia has committed itself to a very close strategic relationship with China.  However, in a reminder to Beijing that Moscow has other options as well, it is to hold a joint counter-terrorism drill with India near the Mongolia-China border in August.  The war games, called INDRA-2012, will will include 250 troops from each side at a training range in eastern Russia.

*** Japan-South Korea military agreement.  Japan is due to sign a “non-combat military pact” with South Korea which will encompass the sharing of military intelligence.  Seoul has completed its necessary domestic political procedures and Japan is expected to complete its this week.

A South Korean military official says: “[South Korea] needs the pact on sharing military intelligence with Japan because we have to use Japan’s intelligence assets, including its spy satellites and high-end surveillance aircraft.  It is an undeniable fact that the existence of Japan is important for our national security.”

A senior official from South Korea’s foreign ministry made clear that the collaboration was not just about North Korea.  He was quoted by the Yonhap news agency as saying: “To cope with the rise of China, the military-intelligence pact with Japan is needed to boost our intelligence capability.”

Separately, Philippines Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario will visit Japan from 27-29 June to discuss, amongst other matters, cooperation over maritime security.