Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In our 13 June issue we looked at the warning issued by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on 12 June, to coincide with the first big anti-government rally since he returned to the Kremlin, in which he said: “For a country as huge as Russia, with its multiethnic population and its complex federative arrangements, the undoubted value of evolutionary, gradual development is obvious.  We cannot accept anything that weakens our country and divides society. We cannot tolerate any decisions and steps that could lead to social and economic shock.” The latest opinion polls suggest that for the moment Putin has little to worry about, but sources in Moscow are also suggesting that this impression may be misleading, and certainly the Kremlin appears to be taking no chances.

According to the latest poll from the Levada Centre, as many as 64% of Russians say that they are satisfied with Putin’s performance against 34% claiming to be dissatisfied. The approval rating for Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev, on 59%, is not far short of Putin’s. Some 39% say they are dissatisfied with Medvedev’s performance. Less positive for the government, but still hardly worrying, is the fall to 44% from 46% in April of those saying the country is moving in the right direction. The poll recorded 38% as saying the country is moving in the wrong direction.

This relative level of satisfaction might explain the latest findings from the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM). The centre’s Valeriy Fedorov says that while there is no definite downward trend, “neither is there a well-defined upward trend suggesting protest activity’s growth”.

What is interesting, however, is that anti-corruption campaigner and opposition activist Aleksey Navalnyy seems to be moving decisively ahead of his rivals in terms of popularity. Navalnyy’s positive rating among protesters has grown threefold in the last four months, now standing at 46%. Left Front coordinator Sergey Udaltsov is also growing in popularity but he remains far behind Navalnyy on 26%.

Solidarity leader Ilya Yashin is showing on 10% and TV presenter Kseniya Sobchak on 7%. Among the clear losers is Yabloko party leader Grigoriy Yavlinskiy on 4%, which is the same level recorded for the head of the Republican Party of Russia, Vladimir Ryzhkov. Another apparent loser is businessman Mikhail Prokhorov. The figures support Fedorov’s contention that Navalnyy has become “the indisputable leader of the protest movement”.

One further interesting point is that the protest movement is becoming more obviously youth-oriented, with the proportion of protesters under 34 years reaching 65% at the 12 June rally. The poll on the popularity of the leaders was conducted during the 12 June rally.

Despite the apparent stalling of opposition momentum, however, the Kremlin is taking nothing for granted and continues to display a hardline attitude towards all challenges. A recent example has been the reaction to the move by Aleksey Kudrin, a former finance minister, to try to foster democratic and civil forces in the regions.

On 26 June Kudrin spoke at a meeting of 200 regional representatives of the Civil Initiatives Committee (CIC), a liberal action group he founded in April at which he announced: “We’re going to the regions.” He said that the CIC is backing a number of initiatives to improve civil society in the regions, including training potential members of municipal assemblies.

The following day Kudrin took part in a meeting of liberal leaders in which the possibility of cooperation at the upcoming regional elections was discussed. The same meeting expressed support for the idea of holding a referendum in Moscow to express a vote of no confidence in Moscow’s local authorities.

Kudrin, who was dismissed from the government in September 2011, said at the 26 June meeting: “I am absolutely convinced that there are no sufficient forces in our parliament and in our society that are ready to carry out reforms.  There are not enough of them in the parliament, our parliament is one-sided.”

He added: “We are lagging far behind. Even when I was in government - for two years before the election - this was the time when populist decisions were made, as a rule. We have been living in this mode for two years...I think that the next parliament should have a completely different structure...The global economic crisis, which is already unfolding, is going on separately, but it can of course deepen our political crisis too. Because today there is significant - that is to say unusual - distrust, the authorities’ alienation from society, including in the person of the leading parliamentary party. There is a serious barrier, and I think it is dangerous.”

One Russia, the party of power, reacted to Kudrin’s 26-27 June initiatives with a furious media assault, publishing at least four articles by party members criticizing Kudrin on the One Russia website and promoted via Twitter.

This is being matched by a continued crackdown on protest leaders. On 11 June, police raided the homes of eight protest leaders, impounding documents and computers. Dozens of people have been arrested for involvement in the “disorders” during the 6 May mass protest rally on the eve of Putin’s inauguration, and a huge 200-strong investigative task force has been created to investigate those involved in the 6 May events. Navalnyy has complained about the apparent hacking of his mobile phone, email, and Twitter account.

Despite talk in recent weeks of no further major rallies until the autumn, a new anti-Kremlin rally is now planned for 26 July, with the protest leaders hoping for a large turnout nationwide, not just in Moscow. The purpose of the rally is not only to protest against Putin’s rule but also to show support for those arrested in connection with the 6 May protest on charges of inciting riots and assaulting the police.

Kudrin, for his part, seems to be worried about a radicalization of the protest movement in response to the actions of the state against it, such as the house searches of opposition activists and the new law on rallies. However, he himself is continuing to emphasize the importance of pursuing change by purely constitutional means.

Some sources say that Kudrin is positioning himself to act as a mediator between the Kremlin and the opposition, which is why he has refrained from joining or starting a political party. It is significant that this self-restraint seems to be cutting little ice with the Kremlin.  JdeC.

Note: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, at odds with the West over Syria, Iran, and missile defence, continues to present Russia as a country that cannot be pushed around. Speaking to a reception of graduates of Russian military academies and universities on 28 June, he said: “Russia will not take the language of force from anyone.”

He said that creating a modern army and strengthening the country’s security “is our absolute priority”, and he warned: “The purpose of the state military organization is to guarantee peace and protect our country’s interests and sovereignty, to respond to any threats, wherever they may originate, swiftly and appropriately.”

As we pointed out last week, however, we do not believe that Putin’s defiant soundbites on foreign policy necessarily indicate a reluctance to bargain.  Putin’s primary goal is not to be pushed about; not to be taken for granted. The apparent suspension by Moscow of the planned delivery of $105m worth of S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Syria suggests that given the right incentives, Russia can be squared on some issues at least.