Courcy's Intelligence Brief - 4 July 2012

Items

• Kremlin intransigence could radicalize opposition

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  In our 13 June issue we looked at the warning issued by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on 12 June, to coincide with the first big anti-government rally since he returned to the Kremlin, in which he said: “For a country as huge as Russia, with its multiethnic population and its complex federative arrangements, the undoubted value of evolutionary, gradual development is obvious.  We cannot accept anything that weakens our country and divides society. We cannot tolerate any decisions and steps that could lead to social and economic shock.” The latest opinion polls suggest that for the moment Putin has little to worry about, but sources in Moscow are also suggesting that this impression may be misleading, and certainly the Kremlin appears to be taking no chances.

  According to the latest poll from the Levada Centre, as many as 64% of Russians say that they are satisfied with Putin’s performance against 34% claiming to be dissatisfied. The approval rating for Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev, on 59%, is not far short of Putin’s. Some 39% say they are dissatisfied with Medvedev’s performance. Less positive for the government, but still hardly worrying, is the fall to 44% from 46% in April of those saying the country is moving in the right direction. The poll recorded 38% as saying the country is moving in the wrong direction.

  This relative level of satisfaction might explain the latest findings from the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM). The centre’s Valeriy Fedorov says that while there is no definite downward trend, “neither is there a well-defined upward trend suggesting protest activity’s growth”.

  What is interesting, however, is that anti-corruption campaigner and opposition activist Aleksey Navalnyy seems to be moving decisively ahead of his rivals in terms of popularity. Navalnyy’s positive rating among protesters has grown threefold in the last four months, now standing at 46%. Left Front coordinator Sergey Udaltsov is also growing in popularity but he remains far behind Navalnyy on 26%.

  Solidarity leader Ilya Yashin is showing on 10% and TV presenter Kseniya Sobchak on 7%. Among the clear losers is Yabloko party leader Grigoriy Yavlinskiy on 4%, which is the same level recorded for the head of the Republican Party of Russia, Vladimir Ryzhkov. Another apparent loser is businessman Mikhail Prokhorov. The figures support Fedorov’s contention that Navalnyy has become “the indisputable leader of the protest movement”.

  One further interesting point is that the protest movement is becoming more obviously youth-oriented, with the proportion of protesters under 34 years reaching 65% at the 12 June rally. The poll on the popularity of the leaders was conducted during the 12 June rally.

  Despite the apparent stalling of opposition momentum, however, the Kremlin is taking nothing for granted and continues to display a hardline attitude towards all challenges. A recent example has been the reaction to the move by Aleksey Kudrin, a former finance minister, to try to foster democratic and civil forces in the regions.

  On 26 June Kudrin spoke at a meeting of 200 regional representatives of the Civil Initiatives Committee (CIC), a liberal action group he founded in April at which he announced: “We’re going to the regions.” He said that the CIC is backing a number of initiatives to improve civil society in the regions, including training potential members of municipal assemblies.

  The following day Kudrin took part in a meeting of liberal leaders in which the possibility of cooperation at the upcoming regional elections was discussed. The same meeting expressed support for the idea of holding a referendum in Moscow to express a vote of no confidence in Moscow’s local authorities.

  Kudrin, who was dismissed from the government in September 2011, said at the 26 June meeting: “I am absolutely convinced that there are no sufficient forces in our parliament and in our society that are ready to carry out reforms.  There are not enough of them in the parliament, our parliament is one-sided.”

  He added: “We are lagging far behind. Even when I was in government - for two years before the election - this was the time when populist decisions were made, as a rule. We have been living in this mode for two years...I think that the next parliament should have a completely different structure...The global economic crisis, which is already unfolding, is going on separately, but it can of course deepen our political crisis too. Because today there is significant - that is to say unusual - distrust, the authorities’ alienation from society, including in the person of the leading parliamentary party. There is a serious barrier, and I think it is dangerous.”

  One Russia, the party of power, reacted to Kudrin’s 26-27 June initiatives with a furious media assault, publishing at least four articles by party members criticizing Kudrin on the One Russia website and promoted via Twitter.

  This is being matched by a continued crackdown on protest leaders. On 11 June, police raided the homes of eight protest leaders, impounding documents and computers. Dozens of people have been arrested for involvement in the “disorders” during the 6 May mass protest rally on the eve of Putin’s inauguration, and a huge 200-strong investigative task force has been created to investigate those involved in the 6 May events. Navalnyy has complained about the apparent hacking of his mobile phone, email, and Twitter account.

  Despite talk in recent weeks of no further major rallies until the autumn, a new anti-Kremlin rally is now planned for 26 July, with the protest leaders hoping for a large turnout nationwide, not just in Moscow. The purpose of the rally is not only to protest against Putin’s rule but also to show support for those arrested in connection with the 6 May protest on charges of inciting riots and assaulting the police.

  Kudrin, for his part, seems to be worried about a radicalization of the protest movement in response to the actions of the state against it, such as the house searches of opposition activists and the new law on rallies. However, he himself is continuing to emphasize the importance of pursuing change by purely constitutional means.

  Some sources say that Kudrin is positioning himself to act as a mediator between the Kremlin and the opposition, which is why he has refrained from joining or starting a political party. It is significant that this self-restraint seems to be cutting little ice with the Kremlin.  JdeC.

  Note: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, at odds with the West over Syria, Iran, and missile defence, continues to present Russia as a country that cannot be pushed around. Speaking to a reception of graduates of Russian military academies and universities on 28 June, he said: “Russia will not take the language of force from anyone.”

  He said that creating a modern army and strengthening the country’s security “is our absolute priority”, and he warned: “The purpose of the state military organization is to guarantee peace and protect our country’s interests and sovereignty, to respond to any threats, wherever they may originate, swiftly and appropriately.”

  As we pointed out last week, however, we do not believe that Putin’s defiant soundbites on foreign policy necessarily indicate a reluctance to bargain.  Putin’s primary goal is not to be pushed about; not to be taken for granted. The apparent suspension by Moscow of the planned delivery of $105m worth of S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Syria suggests that given the right incentives, Russia can be squared on some issues at least.

• For Seoul, fear of China to trump animosity towards Japan

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  The internal row in South Korea over a military pact with Japan is noteworthy in so far as it shows fear of China competing with historical animosity towards former colonial overlord Japan, which ruled the Korean peninsula from 1910-45.

  Japan and South Korea had been due to sign a “non-combat military pact” that would encompass the sharing of military intelligence. Last week it appeared that Seoul had completed its necessary domestic political procedures for signing the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). In the event, on 29 June Seoul announced that it was postponing the signing of the agreement because of a major political backlash. The announcement came less than an hour before the deal was due to be signed in Tokyo.

  The pact had been presented as needed primarily for countering North Korea, and critics were able to question if it were necessary given that South Korea has better information on what is happening in South Korea than any other country. Military officials countered by saying that South Korea needs the pact on sharing military intelligence with Japan because it needs to use Japan’s intelligence assets, including its spy satellites and high-end surveillance aircraft.

  It is inconceivable that officials were not aware of the political difficulties in signing such a deal with Japan. The significance is that they felt it was sufficiently important to proceed anyway and to try to keep the agreement below the political radar, and it is not necessary to look far to understand why.  Senior officials from South Korea’s foreign ministry have been briefing anonymously that the collaboration is as much about China as North Korea.

  One official was quoted by the Yonhap news agency as saying: “To cope with the rise of China, the military-intelligence pact with Japan is needed to boost our intelligence capability.”

  The agreement was initialled in April without any notificaton being given to the National Assembly. An amended version of the pact was then initialled again on 1 May, and this version was given secretive approval by the cabinet on 26 July.

  On 2 July, a senior official at the presidential palace said: “We plan to enter into the signing procedure after completing a report to the National Assembly.” Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan has apologized for the confusion, but not for the policy.

  On 3 July, he said: “I sincerely apologize to our people for failing to smoothly proceed with the planned signing of a military agreement with Japan. I humbly accept criticism that our ministry didn’t make efforts to seek people’s understanding and support for the pact.”

  However, there are doubts as to whether the agreement can now be signed ahead of the December presidential election. Another casualty may be a proposed military logistics accord with Japan. On 3 July, sources in Seoul were saying that officials were “building consensus” towards halting the talks on an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA).

  As one official put it: “With the public so against the government for some procedural issues over the GSOMIA, I think it’s difficult to discuss the ACSA.”  One particulalry sensitive problem with the ACSA is that it could allow Japanese troops to enter South Korean territory.

  Whatever happens with the proposed South Korean-Japan agreements, it is not just South Korea that sees closer ties with Japan as a necessary balance to the challenge of a rising China. On 2 July, for instance, Japan and the Philippines signed an agreement to reinforce cooperation in maritime security.

  China, unsurprisingly, remains unbending in its opposition to all such moves and continues to urge its neighbours not to oppose China’s territorial claims. On 2 July, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman urged Vietnam not to “aggravate” the situation after a group of Vietnamese protested on 1 July against China’s claims in the South China Sea.

  China’s spokesman Liu Weiman said: “China always opposes countries’ moves to aggravate and complicate the situation in the South China Sea.

  On the same day, China told the Philippines to stop making provocative remarks about the disputed Scarborough Reef. The same foreign ministry spokesman, Liu Weimin, said: “We hope the Philippine side will stop making provocative comments time and again to proud public opinion, and avoid complicating the situation.” The rebuke came after Philippine Senate president Juan Ponce Enrile had said that China’s claims to Scarborough Reef were “legally weak”.

  A discussion on China’s CCTV-4 ‘Focus Today’ programme on 2 July concerning US-Philippines joint naval exercises provided an interesting insight into the way Chinese policymakers and academics view the US’s policies in the region.

  First of all they made the point that military strength is all that the US now has given its economic problems. Secondly, there was an attempt to get across the idea that the US is using “little brother allies” like the Philippines and Vietnam to anger China and to maintain tension in the region. These views reflect the official line that the US reinforcement of its military deployment in the Asia-Pacific is not conducive to security and mutual trust in the region.

  But as the attempt by South Korea’s policymaking elite to sign an unpopular pact with Japan shows, even long-standing hatreds such as those harboured by South Koreans towards Japan are being trumped by the fear of China.

  Note: South Korea’s defence ministry announced on 2 July a 7.6% rise in its budget for 2013. The defence ministry’s demand, submitted to the finance ministry on 20 June, was for US$31.1bn (35.5trn won, up from 32.9trn for 2012).

• Risk pointers

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  *** Iran continues to harbour hopes of rapprochement with Egypt. In last week’s issue we noted that Egypt had denied that President Muhammad Mursi had told the Iranian Fars news agency that he was interested in developing better relations with Tehran. He had been reported as saying: “This will create a balance of pressure in the region, and this is part of my program”.

  The Fars news agency does indeed have a reputation for fabrication, nevertheless there is no doubt that Iran is making a concerted effort to build a relationship with the new Egypt and still hopes that this can be achieved.

  On 3 July, Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Seyyed Ali Khamenei, told a press conference: “The commonalities of Iran and the emerging Egypt are more than before; therefore this victory is considered as the dawn of a grand victory in the entire Arab and Muslim world.”

  Velayati added: “Throughout the contemporary history, Egypt has always been the forerunner of politico-ideological movements in the entire Arab world, therefore Egypt is of paramount importance.”

  There is, of course, enormous pressure on Egypt from the United States not to bolster ties with Iran. However, some well-placed sources believe that the strong animosity of the Gulf states to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (particularly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) may yet prove to be counter-productive when it comes to preventing better relations between Egypt and Iran.

  *** Netanyahu responds to latest nuclear talks with Iran. On 2 July, Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee: “Iran is showing contempt for the whole world and plans to enrich [uranium] beyond 20%”.

  In Netanyahu’s view, Iran “does not see determination on the world powers’ part to stop the nuclearization”. He said that sanctions are damaging Iran’s economy, but they are “uncomfortable” rather than severe.

  Netanyahu also confirmed that Israel is preparing for the a deterioration in relations with Egypt. He said: “We must be ready for all possibilities.”

  *** Kim Jong-un continues his courting of the military. During the first half of 2012, North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un has devoted half of his time to the military. Out of 81 officially reported activities, 40 were related to the military.