Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Iran continues to harbour hopes of rapprochement with Egypt. In last week’s issue we noted that Egypt had denied that President Muhammad Mursi had told the Iranian Fars news agency that he was interested in developing better relations with Tehran. He had been reported as saying: “This will create a balance of pressure in the region, and this is part of my program”.

The Fars news agency does indeed have a reputation for fabrication, nevertheless there is no doubt that Iran is making a concerted effort to build a relationship with the new Egypt and still hopes that this can be achieved.

On 3 July, Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Seyyed Ali Khamenei, told a press conference: “The commonalities of Iran and the emerging Egypt are more than before; therefore this victory is considered as the dawn of a grand victory in the entire Arab and Muslim world.”

Velayati added: “Throughout the contemporary history, Egypt has always been the forerunner of politico-ideological movements in the entire Arab world, therefore Egypt is of paramount importance.”

There is, of course, enormous pressure on Egypt from the United States not to bolster ties with Iran. However, some well-placed sources believe that the strong animosity of the Gulf states to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (particularly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) may yet prove to be counter-productive when it comes to preventing better relations between Egypt and Iran.

*** Netanyahu responds to latest nuclear talks with Iran. On 2 July, Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee: “Iran is showing contempt for the whole world and plans to enrich [uranium] beyond 20%”.

In Netanyahu’s view, Iran “does not see determination on the world powers’ part to stop the nuclearization”. He said that sanctions are damaging Iran’s economy, but they are “uncomfortable” rather than severe.

Netanyahu also confirmed that Israel is preparing for the a deterioration in relations with Egypt. He said: “We must be ready for all possibilities.”

*** Kim Jong-un continues his courting of the military. During the first half of 2012, North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un has devoted half of his time to the military. Out of 81 officially reported activities, 40 were related to the military.