Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Warning of North Korean missile launch.  Military sources in South Korea have been quoted locally as saying that North Korea is likely to launch a long-range missile in the next two months.  The intelligence is based on US satellite images showing increased activity at a North Korean missile site.  A senior South Korean military official was quoted as saying: “[The South Korean military] is judging that there is a high possibility of [North Korea] firing off the missile between December and January of next year.”  In April, it is thought that North Korea botched a long-range missile test.

On 27 November, South Korea’s Defence Minister Kim Kwan-jin told a meeting of senior military officers and officials: “After the power transition [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un will continue to strengthen his grip on power and maintain his hard-line stance on the South.”

*** Indian caution on China.  India’s Union Minister Farooq Abdullah was quoted on 26 November as saying that while India is extending the hand of friendship to China on the one hand, on the other it remained cautious about Chinese intentions.

Explaining to a gathering of students why India is deploying another division to the disputed Kashmir region of Ladakh, he said: “I want to tell you that in one place we are befriending China but we have also learnt a lesson from China and that is why we remain cautious as well.”

He added: “We had one full division there and now we are putting another division there because we have threat from China and I don’t say that outside but I am telling you because you are Indians.”

Abdullah also said that while China was pursuing huge infrastructure projects on the border with Arunachal Pradesh, India was “still thinking”.

*** Israeli threat to Hamas.  Speaking on 22 November, Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that despite the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel would “eventually need to overthrow the Hamas regime” in Gaza.

Separately, Iran has made much of Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire in Gaza, presenting it as a defeat for Israel.  More importantly, it does seem to have taken this as further evidence that Israel does not have the appetite to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Iran’s navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said that the war proved that the “Zionist regime is a paper tiger”.