Courcy's Intelligence Brief - 28 November 2012

Items

• China signals bullying to continue

  LatinNews 28 November 2012 Hits: 745

  The People’s Daily, the organ of the Communist Party of China (CPC), has published a number of commentaries on foreign policy since the 18th CPC National  Congress heralded in the country’s new leadership, essentially saying that China is not for turning and warning its neighbours about the dangers of challenging China’s interests and of siding with America.

  China’s continuing view of the US as a less than benign presence in Asia was fully aired in a piece published by the CPC organ on 23 November, prompted by US President Barack Obama’s visit to Burma.  It wrote that the US’s strategic shift of focus to Asia had four main purposes, namely to contain China, to “prevent estrangement with Japan...and other Asian allies”, to avoid being marginalized in any free trade agreements for the region, and “to trigger an arms race and increase the sales of its weapons”.

  With this malign US presence as the background, the paper published a piece on 27 November that argued that President Hu Jintao’s report to Congress “points out that China will resolutely uphold its national sovereignty, security, and development benefits, and never yield to any external pressure”.

  One of the most interesting of this series of post-Congress articles on foreign policy was a 26 November report that seemed to identify the disputed waters of the East China Sea as a “core interest”.  It may be recalled that in March 2010 China declared that the South China Sea was a “core interest” on a par with Tibet and Taiwan.  Then, in May this year it was reported by Japanese sources that during a meeting with former Japanese Justice Minister Satsuki Eda in Tokyo on 22 May, the head of China’s International Liaison Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, Wang Jiarui, referred to the Senkaku Islands as being part of “China’s core interests”.  This was never confirmed.  But in its 26 November article, the People’s Daily does seem to put the territorial dispute with Japan in the same category – that is a “core interest” - as the disputes in the South China Sea.  It said: “Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan hope to seize China’s core interests by promoting cooperation with the United States in terms of security and defence, and contain China on maritime interests with the help of the United States.”

  The People’s Daily article then went on, in threatening terms, to warn that “the ambivalent mentality of neighbouring countries will inevitably affect the implementation of China’s good-neighbourly and friendly policies”.

  A couple of days earlier, on 24 November, the People’s Daily published an article calling the Philippines a “troublemaker”.  The complaint this time was an announcement by the Philippines that it would host a meeting in December for four South China Sea claimant countries – the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia – to discuss ways to advance a “multilateral solution” to the territorial disputes.

  The same article accused the Philippines of trying to “blackmail” other south-east Asian countries into supporting its stance on the South China Sea, and it warned that the Philippines was “misjudging” the “general trend of the region” – by which it meant the rising importance of China.  It warned the Philippines about the “dual-faced nature” of the US.  It added: “Obviously, the Philippines’ insistence on taking the dark road of internationalization of the South China Sea issue has no future, and only by freeing itself from narrow-mindedness and prejudice can the Philippines embark on the road of win-win mutual benefit with China”.

  Finally, the People’s Daily warned Manila that the alternative to a return to win-win cooperation was Chinese “retaliation against any action that harms and encroaches on China’s maritime rights and interests”.

  If any Western policymakers still harbour the hope that there might be a new approach towards regional territorial disputes, and the role of the United States in Asia, under China’s new leadership, it looks to be a forlorn one.  It is China not the Philippines that is indulging in “blackmail”, and it looks set to continue under the new leadership.  JdeC.

• Hardening attitudes in Israel

  LatinNews 28 November 2012 Hits: 720

  Israel’s ruling Likud party has held its primary election in preparation for the 22 January general election, and the result has been a clear swing to the right.

  Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu described the new list of candidates as “strong and youthful, with experience and talent”.  But he has lost the moderating voices of Dan Meridor, Michael Eitan, and Benny Begin, to which list can be added the retiring Defence Minister Ehud Barak.  Addressing public remarks to Meridor and Begin, Netanyahu said: “We grew up together in Jerusalem, we were raised on the values of Jabotinsky, and I will maintain these values in the next government.  I want you by my side.”  This suggestion of keeping old allies close despite their loss of political status has fed suggestions that Barak, at least, will return as a “professional appointment” by Netanyahu.

  Likud’s political rivals have been quick to seize on the rightward shift, with Kadima accusing the ruling party of swerving towards the extremist margins.  One newspaper asked the question: “How will the prime minister live with a party like this (assuming he is reelected) which will rebel against any attempt he makes to renew negotiations with the Palestinians or to abide by court rulings that do not suit a rightist agenda?”

  One of the rightists who seems likely to make life difficult for Netanyahu in the next Knesset is Moshe Feiglin, who took 15th slot on the list.  Feiglin spelled out his views in an article in the 27 November edition of Makor Rishon, saying that Israel should return to all parts of the Land of Israel, including the Gaza Strip, and take control of Temple Mount.

  He wrote: “We first have to renounce the very essence of the idea of partitioning this land.  We have to understand that this is our land – exclusively.  We must, on a national scale, return to the Land of Israel and our Jewish identity.  We must beg the forgiveness of the Jews expelled from Gush Katif and rebuild their towns and villages with the forces that destroyed them and bring them back to their rightful place with an honour guard.  We must vote with our feet, declaring to all that this is our land, proving to our enemies that this is not their land.  And most importantly, we must expedite the Muslim waqf from the Temple Mount and restore exclusive Israeli sovereignty over Judaism’s holiest site.  We must encourage Jews to ascend the Temple Mount after the proper preparations and to actualize their sovereignty over the very heart of the Jewish nation...”

  Whatever the outside world may think about this rightward shift in Israeli politics, the polls seem to indicate that Netanyahu is secure and that the right-wing bloc will win 69 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

• Three-way power struggle in Cairo

  LatinNews 28 November 2012 Hits: 727

  There is a deep concern in Cairo that the main beneficiaries of the dispute over President Muhammad Mursi’s new powers could be the remnants of the old regime.  The fears may be exaggerated, but it is certain that those remnants are far from displeased with this turn of events.

  Whatever the uncertainties, one thing is certain: the constitutional powers that President Mursi has sought to arrogate to himself in the past week are truly extraordinary.  His declaration of 22 November stated, in part:

  "We have decided the following:

  “Article one: All investigation and trials into crimes pertaining to killing and injuring protesters as well as terror crimes committed against revolutionaries under the former regime will be re-conducted.  Political and executive officials from the former regime who are implicated in these cases will be retried, according to the Law on the Protection of the Revolution and other laws.

  “Article two: All constitutional declarations, laws and decrees issued by the president since coming to office on 30 June 2012 are final and unchallengeable by any individual or body until a new constitution has been ratified and a new parliament has been elected. His decisions cannot be appealed or cancelled.  All pending lawsuits against them are void.

  “Article three: A new prosecutor general, from members of the judiciary, will be appointed by president for a four-year term, starting from the day of the appointment.  The prosecutor should meet the general conditions required for appointment in the judiciary.  He must be aged at least 40.  This article comes into effect on the current incumbent prosecutor general immediately.

  “Article four: Article 60 of the Constitutional Declaration of 30 March [which] declared that the assembly would finalize the draft within six months of its formation will be changed to eight months.

  “Article five: No judicial authority is entitled to dissolve the Constituent Assembly or the Shura Council.

  “Article six: The president is authorized to take any measures he sees fit in order to face any threats posed to the January revolution, national unity or national security in accordance with the law.”

  That Mursi miscalculated with this declaration is now clear.  He seems to have thought that conceding to popular demands for the retrial of former regime figures would provide the necessary cover for the clauses giving himself virtually unlimited powers and those which protect the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Constituent Assembly and Shura Council.

  In part, this calculation was based on Mursi’s belief that the opposition was too divided to mount an effective challenge.  However, he missed the fact that this has been changing gradually with the creation a number of new political parties led by influential figures.

  There are three main forces at work in Egypt today.  The secular revolutionaries who wish to see a genuine democracy established; the Muslim Brotherhood and the other elements of political Islam that want to control the revolution for the benefit of their particular vision of society; and the remnants of the old regime looking for a comeback.

  It is not easy to judge exactly how potent the challenge from the old regime loyalists might be, but some well-placed observers, at least, view it as the most serious challenge for Egypt.  As the leading Egyptian commentator Hassan Nafa put it in al-Masri al-Yawm on 27 November: “In my view, the main conflict remains that between the forces of revolution and the remnants of the old regime against which these forces rebelled.  As for the conflict with political Islam and its various factions, and especially with the Brotherhood, this remains a secondary matter, despite the fact that this current has staged a coup against the revolution or even committed an act of treason against it.”

• Kurdish complications intensify

  LatinNews 28 November 2012 Hits: 837

  Syrian-Kurdish sources say that attempts to unify Kurdish forces in Syria are being intensified.  The aim, according to one local source, is “to establish a popular army as an alternative to the armed militias”.  The spur is the need to confront the Salafi groups that have been challenging the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (DYP) in Syria’s Kurdish cities.  The new force will combine those elements that were previously loyal to the DYP with “650 young Syrians who were previously trained in Iraqi Kurdistan”.

  The plan was agreed at a recent meeting in the Iraqi Kurdish city of Irbil and drew on the work of the earlier meeting in Irbil in the second week of July at which it was agreed to set up a Kurdish Supreme Committee and to form “popular defence forces” to control the Kurdish regions of Syria.  The leader of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Masoud Barzani played an important part in bridging the differences between the PYD and the Kurdish National Council (KNC), much to the concern of Turkey.

  At the latest meeting in Irbil, it was agreed that the activities of the radical Salafi forces in Syria required an accelerated implementation of the earlier Irbil agreement.  The new force, it is said, will “fill the vacuum that is left after the fall of the ruling regime in Damascus”.

  A source at the meeting, quoted by the Saudi-owned daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat, added: “The latest Irbil meeting raised democratic slogans for an independent Syria and for federalism in West Kurdistan.  Furthermore, the Kurdish Supreme Committee, consisting of the People’s Council of West Kurdistan, the Kurdish National Council, and local coordinating bodies should be the sole legitimate representative of the Kurdish people in Syria.”

  Meanwhile, back in Iraq the complications are intensifying.  There is a suspicion that the pro-Iranian Shia government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is trying to ratchet up tension with the Kurds of the KRG in order to break the Sunni Arab-Kurdish alignment.  Notwithstanding the recent agreement for both sides to withdraw their forces in the disputed areas to their former positions, Al-Maliki appears to believe that it is in his interests to foment Arab-Kurdish rivalry as this might bring the Sunni Arabs more into alignment with Baghdad.  The Kurdish-Arab fault-line is mostly one between Kurds and Sunni Arabs not the Shia Arabs.  Al-Maliki would prefer an ethnic conflict to a sectarian one.

  But an indication of how complex the situation is becoming is provided by the increased Iranian support for the anti-Turkey Kurdish rebels of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).  On 26 November, Turkey’s Interior Minister Idris Naim Sahin confirmed these fears, saying: “We are quite aware of Iran’s support for the PKK.  We know that PKK members that are wounded during clashes against the Turkish army are treated in Iranian hospitals.”  This is something that has been expected given that Iran is so at odds with Turkey over Syria.

• Risk pointers

  LatinNews 28 November 2012 Hits: 501

  *** Warning of North Korean missile launch.  Military sources in South Korea have been quoted locally as saying that North Korea is likely to launch a long-range missile in the next two months.  The intelligence is based on US satellite images showing increased activity at a North Korean missile site.  A senior South Korean military official was quoted as saying: “[The South Korean military] is judging that there is a high possibility of [North Korea] firing off the missile between December and January of next year.”  In April, it is thought that North Korea botched a long-range missile test.

  On 27 November, South Korea’s Defence Minister Kim Kwan-jin told a meeting of senior military officers and officials: “After the power transition [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un will continue to strengthen his grip on power and maintain his hard-line stance on the South.”

  *** Indian caution on China.  India’s Union Minister Farooq Abdullah was quoted on 26 November as saying that while India is extending the hand of friendship to China on the one hand, on the other it remained cautious about Chinese intentions.

  Explaining to a gathering of students why India is deploying another division to the disputed Kashmir region of Ladakh, he said: “I want to tell you that in one place we are befriending China but we have also learnt a lesson from China and that is why we remain cautious as well.”

  He added: “We had one full division there and now we are putting another division there because we have threat from China and I don’t say that outside but I am telling you because you are Indians.”

  Abdullah also said that while China was pursuing huge infrastructure projects on the border with Arunachal Pradesh, India was “still thinking”.

  *** Israeli threat to Hamas.  Speaking on 22 November, Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that despite the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel would “eventually need to overthrow the Hamas regime” in Gaza.

  Separately, Iran has made much of Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire in Gaza, presenting it as a defeat for Israel.  More importantly, it does seem to have taken this as further evidence that Israel does not have the appetite to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Iran’s navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said that the war proved that the “Zionist regime is a paper tiger”.