Courcy’s Intelligence Brief
China's self-defeating aggression
In relation to the euro crisis, in a speech in Berlin last November, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said: "I will probably be the first Polish foreign minister in history to say so, but here it is: I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear German inactivity.” The Philippines seems to be taking a similar view of Japan’s role in Asia. Perfectly demonstrating that China’s aggressive policy in the East and South China Seas is self-defeating, the Philippines is arguing for Japan to play a stronger military role in the region.
On 10 December, Philippines’ Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario told London’s Financial Times that the Philippines “very much” welcomes a rearmed Japan. He said: "We are looking for balancing factors in the region and Japan could be a significant balancing factor.”
Elaborating on this later, foreign ministry spokesman Raul Hernandez said that the Philippines “would welcome a stronger Japan which, together with our partners, would serve as a balancing factor in the Asia and Pacific region”. Hernandez said that the Philippines wants Japan to “support the peaceful process of resolving the issues here and to be one of the partners as far as security alliances and partnerships is concerned”.
In the commercial sphere, however, China’s tactics are, to a degree, paying off. On 11 December, Philippines’ Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla said that Manila was suspending the award of contracts to companies interested in conducting oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea. Petilla said: “It is not only the commercial issue that we’re talking about here. We have to consider everything as a whole.”
Six companies are involved in bids for the development of three areas. A representative of one of the companies expressed his frustration by saying: “"We feel that there really is no reason to put it on hold, especially in our area where we are bidding because that's the least controversial among the three. We are bidding for the area that's closest to Philippine soil. All the while, the government has been saying all these three areas are well-defined to be within Philippine territory.”