Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Indian missile development.  While all the world was concentrated on North Korea’s latest rocket launch on 12 December, on the same day India successfully test-fired its nuclear capable Agni-1 ballistic missile from a test range on Wheeler Island.  The missile has a range of 700km.

*** Yemen’s rebellions.  As mentioned in this week’s main briefing, the head of Yemen’s National Security, Major-General Ali al-Ahmadi, has accused Iran of funding the Shia Houthist rebellion in the northwest of the country.  Al-Ahmadi said: “We call on Iran to desist from training and funding Shia rebels in Yemen.”  He said that Iran had “seized the opportunity to broaden the conflict”.

Yemen is also facing insurgencies from al-Qaeda backed Islamists and southern separatists.  According to al-Ahmadi, al-Qaeda elements “do not exceed 700 or 800 in Yemen”.  Of these “a few hundred” are from Saudi Arabia.

*** New Chinese media venture in Africa.  The English-language China Daily, which largely reflects official thinking, is to launch a weekly African edition in Nairobi.  China Daily’s editor-in-chief Zhu Ling said that the paper intended “to demystify the Sino-African relations”.  He said: "The link between China and the African continent is one of the most significant relationships in the world today. It is growing and complex and not always understood - not just by those in other parts of the world but by Africans and Chinese, too.”

*** Russian warning about ‘Orange Revolutions’.  In reference to the 2004 unrest in Ukraine, on 9 December Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev said that there is a danger of an Orange Revolution “in Russia and other CIS countries”.  He mentioned Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.  He said: “We see how events are developing there.  They pose danger for us.”

*** China toughening inspections of North Korean cargo.  On 10 December, an official at the South Korean presidential office was quoted by the Yonhap news agency as saying: “I understand that Chinese authorities are conducting total inspections at a couple of ports where a lot of North Korean cargoes are entering.  It has been several months since this measure was taken.”  China is obliged to inspect for items banned under UN sanctions.

However, South Korean officials say it is too early to say that Beijing has definitively toughened its approach towards North Korea.  As a senior government official put it: “We will be able to determine whether the Chinese position is different from before when we look at the Chinese attitude in discussions on sanctions on North Korea.”