Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

There is some enthusiastic chatter about a three-day meeting on Afghanistan which opened in Paris on 19 October as part of attempts to get rival factions talking to each other ahead of the 2014 Western pull-out.  One of the purposes of the Paris meeting, organized by the Strategic Research Foundation (FRS) is to get the Taleban talking to the Northern Alliance, or the National Front of Afghanistan (NFA) as it has now become.  In that respect, the talks do represent an advance, but the level of vitriol between the Taleban and the Kabul administration suggests that there will be no progress towards substantive negotiations.

In statement ahead of the gathering, the Taleban said: “Our representatives will only address the conference; as the conference is a research and scientific meeting, no agreements will be made with anybody and no talks will be held with the occupying powers of the Kabul administration.”

Separately, on 18 December the Taleban also issued a statement denying reports that it was ready to talk to the Afghan government.  It said: “Recently, international media outlets have been publishing a number of exaggerated and unfounded reports about the political activities of the Islamic Emirate [the Taleban].  In this regard, they are attributing their personal views and clearly wrong information to the spokesmen of the Islamic Emirate and then comment about them...

“One such false report that has been published in some media outlets today alleges that the spokesman of the Islamic Emirate has accepted they will take part in a meeting to be convened by the UNAMA [UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan] in Kabul if they are invited by the Kabul administration.

“Such reports are far from truth, and the Islamic Emirate strongly condemns them.  The Islamic Emirate will never wait for an invitation from the Kabul administration nor take part in a meeting that is held in Kabul...”

On the other hand, NFA leader Ahmad Zia Masud has said: “We seek an understanding between us and the Taleban to know their views and finally to pave the way to reaching peace.”

The NFA is being represented in Paris by Masud, while the Taleban is being represented by Shahaboddin Delawar, a senior figure in the Taleban’s political office in Qatar.  The government has sent a presidential adviser, Haji Din Mohammad, and Masum Stanakzai from the High Peace Council.  The rebel group Hezb-e Eslami is being represented by leader Golboddin Hekmatyar’s son-in-law Ghairat Bahir.

The significance of the meeting, despite the downbeat comments from the Taleban quoted above, is that it will be the first such meeting between representatives of Taleban leader Mullah Omar and top figures in the Northern Alliance.  It is also interesting that this meeting comes at a time when Pakistan has also unfrozen slightly towards the Northern Alliance.  In July, Masud and other Northern Alliance leaders met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf in Kabul.

But whatever small progress there might be in getting the Taleban to talk to the NFA, the gulf between the Taleban and the Kabul administration appears to remain unbridgable.  The Afghan government responded to the Taleban’s negative statements, quoted above, by saying: “It is not negotiations.  The meeting cannot represent all Afghan political sides.  The Taleban have clearly said that they would not hold peace talks.  All these issues give us the impression that the Paris meeting does not enjoy support.”