Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

For the past six months we have been suggesting that things may be changing in North Korea.  One pointer we highlighted back in July was the unusual level of coverage of economic news by Rodong Sinmun, the official paper of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.  The same emphasis on economic issues over political could be seen in Kim Jong-un’s conciliatory New Year address to the nation.

In his address, Kim stressed that “building an economic giant” was the most important task, and he emphasized that “all economic undertakings this year should be geared to effecting a radical increase in production and stabilizing and improving the people’s living standards”.

Kim mentioned “economy” 24 times, significantly more than his references to founder Kim Il-sung (11) or to his father Kim Jong-il (14).  Socialism was mentioned 18 times, self-reliance (juche) 13 times, and the military-first doctrine (songun) six times.  He used the word “people” 59 times.

Another interesting point is that Kim Jong-un returned to his grandfather’s practice of making a New Year’s address rather than, like his father, just penning editorials.  The downgrading of songun also seems to be a deliberate distancing of himself from his father, whose concept it was.

On relations with the South, Kim called for “reconciliation and unity”, albeit with strings.  A close aide to South Korea’s incoming president, Park Geun-hye, said that the speech was a good sign and appeared to be testing the waters for reopening dialogue with the South.

The Unification Minister in the outgoing administration, Yu Woo-ik, also said that he sees positive signs in Kim’s address.  He said that although the message appeared bland, with no ground-breaking proposals, there appeared to be an understanding that the political landscape in Northeast Asia was changing, with new leaders in Seoul, Beijing, and Tokyo.

President-elect Park, who won the election on the ticket of the ruling conservative Saenuri Party, has said that she will try to ease tensions and hold talks with the north.  Yu, however, has said that the Park administration will proceed cautiously, modifying existing policies rather than instigating abrupt change.

NOTE: Following China’s objections to the Philippines’ plan to build new military infrastructure on Thitu Island in the South China Sea, Manila has said that Thitu Island is part of the Freedom Island group within the Spratly Islands and that the Philippines exercises “territorial sovereignty, jurisdiction, and effective administration in accordance with international law”.

China, for its part, claims “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratlys, and on 7 January it called on the Philippines to “comply with established parameters of conduct among claimant nations in disputed waters”.  Manila says this is a hypocritical statement given China’s own actions in the South China Sea and the fact that it is spending $1.6bn to develop Shansha City to ‘govern’ the Spratlys.