Courcy's Intelligence Brief

Problems mounting up for Netanyahu

LatinNews 09 January 2013 Hits: 652

These are intensely nervous days for Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, what with a late surge by the far-right Bayit Yehudi party led by Naftali Bennett ahead of the 22 January election and the prospect of a secretary of defence being appointed in the United States who is sceptical about the confrontational approach with Iran.

Having for long looked a shoo-in for the election, Netanyahu is now losing support to Bennett’s new party, and this in turn is encouraging for the centrist and left-wing parties. Hatenuah, the centrist party led by former foreign minister Tzipi Livni, the centrist Yesh Atid, and the Labour Party now look as if they could win 37 seats in the Knesset, which would be two more than the numbers projected for the Likud-Yisrael Beitenu alliance and could even enable them to form a government if they can overcome their differences (which they haven’t done yet). Polls suggest Bennett’s party could pick up 18 seats out of 120, leaving Likud-Beitenu with 35.

Netanyahu’s domestic woes have been increased by a public attack on him by former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin who warned on 4 January about Netanyahu seeking a “messianic” war with Iran. But while the attacks on his character may be damaging, Netanyahu himself does not deny his obsession with Iran. He responded to Diskin by saying: “Preventing a nuclear Iran is my central goal in the next term.”

Diskin also attacked Netanyahu over his attitude towards peace with the Palestinians, saying that “Netanyahu has ideological concerns about implementing a two-state solution” despite what he said in his June 2009 speech at Bar Ilan University.

Diskin is likely to be right on this. There is nothing in Netanyahu’s history or make-up suggesting that he would be willing to up-root a substantial proportion of the 700,000 Israelis living beyond the Green Line. Even if the Palestinians were prepared to concede (which they are not) the main settler blocs of Ariel-Elkana (50,000), Betar Illit (50,000), Gush Etzion (30,000) and the Maaleh Adumin bloc (50,000), excluding Jerusalem that would still leave 150,000 Jewish settlers to be removed. The point is that Israel has created facts on the ground that are all but impossible to reverse.

On Iran, Netanyahu now faces the prospect of former Republican senator Chuck Hagel becoming defence secretary in the US, and Hagel is adamantly against a military attack on Iran. Indeed, Hagel even has a record of opposing unilateral US sanctions against Iran, saying: “I have not supported unilateral sanctions because when it is us alone they don’t work and they just isolate the United States.”

One US observer has said Hagel’s nomination suggests that Obama “rates the military option on Iran even lower than he indicates in public”, and that is undoubtedly the message that is being picked up in Jerusalem – which, in turn, can only fuel the concerns of those Israelis who believe Israel’s security cannot be left in the hands of the United States. Hagel’s nomination has also, it seems, increased Iran’s own feeling of invulnerability. On 8 January an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said that Iran’s leaders “hope that practical changes would occur in US foreign policy, and respect for nations’ rights would become Washington’s approach”.

Possibly as a result of sensing a weakening of US appetite for confrontation, on 8 January a senior Iranian official announced that Iran was willing to help the US achieve “an honourable and low-cost withdrawal from Afghanistan”. The Iranian Speaker’s senior adviser on international affairs, Hoseyn Sheykholeslam said: “We do not want other nations to pay the costs of rivalry and enmity between the Islamic Republic and the USA, and as we negotiated with the USA on Iraq in the presence of the Iraqis, we are ready to pursue the same trend in Afghanistan.”

Israel’s public response to Hagel’s nomination has been to say, through Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, that the US must send Tehran a “very clear ultimatum, very clear deadline combined with a very credible military threat”. According to Steinitz, although the Iranian economy is in a bad way, Israel is “not confident” that sanctions alone will bring about a revision of policy in Tehran. And that is a conclusion that must be reinforced by the Hagel nomination.

As we have pointed out on a number of occasions, Netanyahu’s uncompromising views on Iran are bolstered by what he sees happening elsewhere in the Middle East, not least in Egypt. And the signals from Egypt continue to alarm Israel.

The latest in a series of alarming signals was the statement on 1 January by a senior adviser to President Muhammad Mursi to the effect that Israel would not exist within a decade. Erian told ONTV: “Jewish occupiers of the territory of historic Palestine are an obstacle to the Palestinians’ right of return. Anyone who can read the future can see that this project has a decade, less than a decade to go, and it is our faith that the people of Palestine can then return to Palestine.”

Since those comments were made, President Mursi has moved to strengthen the Islamist element in his government. Until now, it has been largely a government of non-partisan technocrats. However, following a reshuffle on 6 January, Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters now hold eight of the 35 portfolios in the cabinet led by Prime Minister Hisham Qandil. The new finance minister, Al-Mursi Al-Sayed Hegazy, is sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood even if not a member. He is an expert in Islamic finance.

A new parliamentary election is due at the end of February which may consolidate the MB’s grip on power. The rival Salafi Al-Nour Party, which came second in the last parliamentary elections with 24% of the seats, is suffering from splits, with senior members leaving to launch a new party under the name of Al-Watan (The Homeland). The new party is allied to Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, an Islamist preacher who was prevented from standing in the presidential election that was won by Mursi.

There have been some suggestions that the splits in Al-Nour have been encouraged by the MB after Al-Nour refused to form an alliance. If the Salafis go into the election with two lists, this is likely to benefit the MB. Together, the Islamist trend won 70% of the seats in the last election. On the other hand, while the liberal and secular forces were disunited at the time of the last election, the battle over the constitution has brought them together under the banner of the newly formed National Salvation Front (NSF).

Meanwhile, on the eastern front, Israel continues to fret over the future of Jordan. In our last issue of 2012, we looked at Jordan’s concerns about the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and King Abdullah’s warnings about the machinations of “two Arab states and a regional country”, by which he appears to have meant Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.

Since that warning, there has been evidence that Jordan’s fear of the burgeoning Muslim Brotherhood regional ascendancy might be pushing it closer to the Shia government led by the Iranian-allied Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad. On 4 January, al-Maliki made an unexpected one-day visit to Amman aimed at shoring up relations based on providing Jordan with oil at preferential prices and a plan to build an oil pipeline to the Gulf of Aqaba. It can be taken as read that this move has Iran’s blessing at a time when Iran is on the verge of losing its influence in Syria.

What is particularly interesting is that only a few months ago Amman rejected similar overtures from Baghdad for fear of upsetting the Sunni Arab Gulf States. Clearly, these fears have now been trumped by the greater need. From Israel’s point of view, it is hard to calculate which would be more alarming: Jordan succumbing to the Muslim Brotherhood or its seeking salvation in a close alliance with the Iranian-backed Shia government in Baghdad – and all at a time when the US may be going soft on Iran. JdeC.

Mexico: a proliferation of smaller gangs

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Mexico’s new president, Enrique Pena Nieto, is in the process of implementing his new public security strategy, which will include the creation of a national gendarmerie with a view to phasing out the deployment of the military against organized crime. The gendarmerie should have a strength of 40,000 by 2015. The federal police will be withdrawn from the “frontline struggle” against organized crime.

One interesting thing to come out of the new administration’s appraisal of the security situation relates to the proliferation of smaller gangs. The new administration says that the former administration of President Filipe Calderon targeted top leaders of organized crime but did little to attack the lower levels. As a result, the new administration says, the targeting of the top level of crime has led to a proliferation of lower-level gangs. In addition to the big cartels such as Sinaloa, Gulf, and Zetas, there are now 60-80 small or medium-sized criminal organizations active in the country, many of which have not yet been subject to full intelligence analysis.

Chief federal prosecutor Jesus Murillo Karam says: “It is urgent to create an intelligence system that enables us to combat them.” This task is just beginning.

NOTE: According to the Consejo para la Ley y los Derechos Humanos (CLDH) - a private organisation that since 1991 has been providing assistance to victims of kidnappings, conducting research into security issues, and investigating corruption in Mexico’s security services - members of the police and military are involved in 70%-80% of all kidnappings. The CLDH estimates the daily average of kidnappings in 2012 was 72, up from 51 in 2011, not including the so-called ‘express’ kidnappings attributed to the drug gangs.

The greatest increases in the number of kidnappings, says CLDH director Fernando Ruiz, have taken place in Mexico City, the neighbouring states of Morelos and Mexico, the central state of Puebla, and the western one of Jalisco — which are not the areas with the greatest presence of drug gangs.

According to the CLDH, only one out of every 10 kidnappings is reported to the authorities because of widespread distrust in the authorities – a natural phenomenon given that “the police and public prosecution services are, on the one hand, indifferent, and on the other, accomplices in these crimes”.

Of all the police forces in Mexico, Ruiz says the one most heavily involved in kidnapping is the federal police, followed by the investigative and judicial services.

More signs of movement from Pyongyang

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For the past six months we have been suggesting that things may be changing in North Korea. One pointer we highlighted back in July was the unusual level of coverage of economic news by Rodong Sinmun, the official paper of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. The same emphasis on economic issues over political could be seen in Kim Jong-un’s conciliatory New Year address to the nation.

In his address, Kim stressed that “building an economic giant” was the most important task, and he emphasized that “all economic undertakings this year should be geared to effecting a radical increase in production and stabilizing and improving the people’s living standards”.

Kim mentioned “economy” 24 times, significantly more than his references to founder Kim Il-sung (11) or to his father Kim Jong-il (14). Socialism was mentioned 18 times, self-reliance (juche) 13 times, and the military-first doctrine (songun) six times. He used the word “people” 59 times.

Another interesting point is that Kim Jong-un returned to his grandfather’s practice of making a New Year’s address rather than, like his father, just penning editorials. The downgrading of songun also seems to be a deliberate distancing of himself from his father, whose concept it was.

On relations with the South, Kim called for “reconciliation and unity”, albeit with strings. A close aide to South Korea’s incoming president, Park Geun-hye, said that the speech was a good sign and appeared to be testing the waters for reopening dialogue with the South.

The Unification Minister in the outgoing administration, Yu Woo-ik, also said that he sees positive signs in Kim’s address. He said that although the message appeared bland, with no ground-breaking proposals, there appeared to be an understanding that the political landscape in Northeast Asia was changing, with new leaders in Seoul, Beijing, and Tokyo.

President-elect Park, who won the election on the ticket of the ruling conservative Saenuri Party, has said that she will try to ease tensions and hold talks with the north. Yu, however, has said that the Park administration will proceed cautiously, modifying existing policies rather than instigating abrupt change.

NOTE: Following China’s objections to the Philippines’ plan to build new military infrastructure on Thitu Island in the South China Sea, Manila has said that Thitu Island is part of the Freedom Island group within the Spratly Islands and that the Philippines exercises “territorial sovereignty, jurisdiction, and effective administration in accordance with international law”.

China, for its part, claims “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratlys, and on 7 January it called on the Philippines to “comply with established parameters of conduct among claimant nations in disputed waters”. Manila says this is a hypocritical statement given China’s own actions in the South China Sea and the fact that it is spending $1.6bn to develop Shansha City to ‘govern’ the Spratlys.

Risk pointers

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*** Greece and Turkey at odds again over Aegean. Reports that Greece is preparing to unilaterally declare the limits of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the complex and contentious Aegean Sea , as a prelude to oil exploration, has prompted a warning from Turkey. On 6 January, a Turkish official said: “Turkey is closely following any unilateral attempt by Greece, or by other countries, to extend the economic zone or conduct oil explorations [in the Aegean].”

In the 1990s, when Greece signed up to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos) and Turkey didn’t, Ankara warned strongly about any Greek move to extend its territorial waters from six to 12 nautical miles. Turkey’s parliament said such a move would be considered a “casus belli”.

Sources in Athens say that Greece’s Prime Minister Antonis Samaras may feel the time is right to press Greece’s claims given that Turkey is currently so absorbed with the Syrian crisis, Iraq, and Kurdish issues. But starting oil explorations in an extended EEZ that is disputed by Turkey would be unlikely to pass unchallenged by Ankara.

*** Turkey’s growing interest in West Africa. The first overseas visit of 2013 by Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was to the three Francophone West African countries of Gabon, Niger, and Senegal. He was accompanied by 250 businessmen. Gabon has oil resources, while Niger is an important source of uranium. Turkey has begun building its first nuclear reactor and plans to build two more by 2023.

According to Ali Engin Oba, a former Turkish ambassador in Africa: "Certain groups in Africa are already showing efforts to break away from the influence of the big colonizing powers. Those groups are aware of France's economic problems and could guess that France would not continue its former level of interest in Africa because of those problems. So, they are trying to develop relations with powers that may want to develop economic, social and cultural solidarity with them, including Turkey."

*** Iran admits to doubts about Assad. On 3 January, former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said he thought there was “little chance of survival” for the Assad regime in Syria.

Rafsanjani seems to be particularly concerned about losing the connection with Lebanon and he is urging efforts to establish links with the Syrian opposition through Iraqi intermediaries. He said: “Syria should not be a barrier...If the thread from Lebanon to [Iran] is torn, bad things will happen. This is what I am worried about and think about so much.”

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