Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Greece and Turkey at odds again over Aegean.  Reports that Greece is preparing to unilaterally declare the limits of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the complex and contentious Aegean Sea , as a prelude to oil exploration, has prompted a warning from Turkey.  On 6 January, a Turkish official said: “Turkey is closely following any unilateral attempt by Greece, or by other countries, to extend the economic zone or conduct oil explorations [in the Aegean].”

In the 1990s, when Greece signed up to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos) and Turkey didn’t, Ankara warned strongly about any Greek move to extend its territorial waters from six to 12 nautical miles.  Turkey’s parliament said such a move would be considered a “casus belli”.

Sources in Athens say that Greece’s Prime Minister Antonis Samaras may feel the time is right to press Greece’s claims given that Turkey is currently so absorbed with the Syrian crisis, Iraq, and Kurdish issues.  But starting oil explorations in an extended EEZ that is disputed by Turkey would be unlikely to pass unchallenged by Ankara.

*** Turkey’s growing interest in West Africa.  The first overseas visit of 2013 by Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was to the three Francophone West African countries of Gabon, Niger, and Senegal.  He was accompanied by 250 businessmen.  Gabon has oil resources, while Niger is an important source of uranium.  Turkey has begun building its first nuclear reactor and plans to build two more by 2023.

According to Ali Engin Oba, a former Turkish ambassador in Africa: "Certain groups in Africa are already showing efforts to break away from the influence of the big colonizing powers.  Those groups are aware of France's economic problems and could guess that France would not continue its former level of interest in Africa because of those problems.  So, they are trying to develop relations with powers that may want to develop economic, social and cultural solidarity with them, including Turkey."

*** Iran admits to doubts about Assad.  On 3 January, former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said he thought there was “little chance of survival” for the Assad regime in Syria.

Rafsanjani seems to be particularly concerned about losing the connection with Lebanon and he is urging efforts to establish links with the Syrian opposition through Iraqi intermediaries.  He said: “Syria should not be a barrier...If the thread from Lebanon to [Iran] is torn, bad things will happen.  This is what I am worried about and think about so much.”