Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Not surprisingly China has reacted with anger to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s reiteration that the disputed Senkaku Islands (known as the Diaoyu Islands by China) come within the remit of the US-Japan security pact.  The official Xinhua news agency said on 20 January: “It was exceedingly wrong of Clinton...to make such comments when meeting in Washington with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida.”  It added that Clinton’s comments “would embolden right-wing forces in Japan and intensify tensions between China and Japan”.

On the same day that Xinhua was railing against the perfidy of the United States, Japan’s new nationalistic prime minister Shinzo Abe was saying that he is seeking a review of Japan’s defence programme.  He made his comments on 20 January during a ceremony marking the conclusion of Japan’s peace-keeping mission in the Golan Heights.  Earlier in the month, the national defence task force of Abe’s newly elected Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had announced it would increase the defence budget request by 100bn yen.  This would be the first increase in military spending for Japan in the 11 years.

For China, the concern is that the US no longer seems to be interested in reining in Japan, and it will be keeping a close watch on the current revision of the US-Japan defence cooperation guidelines.  The revision was launched on 18 January, and a key issue will be a possible reinterpretation of Japan’s constitution to allow its participation in collective self-defence.

What China will do about all this, beyond ranting, is one of the great questions of the day.  One answer, of course, is to continue with its military build up, with military spending now estimated to be $200m, second only to the US.  It has also allowed a group of hawkish officers to suggest that Beijing might even contemplate a military solution.  There is a group of about 20 officers who regularly appear in the media arguing for a hawkish response.

One of the most hawkish is Air Force Colonel Dai Xu.  Dai has argued in public for a short decisive war.  In a commentary published by the Global Times last August, Dai wrote: “Since we have decided that the US is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real.”  He referred to Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan as “the three running dogs” of the US in Asia, and he said: “We only need to kill one and it will immediately bring the others to heel.”

Also last August, Rear Admiral Zhang Zhozhong told a state television programme that the US would “run like a rabbit” if China attacked Japan over the Diaoyo Islands.  On another occasion last year, during a period of tension with the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal, he said: “If there is a clash in the South China Sea, the possibility that foreign countries would intervene is low, and any conflict would not last long.”  Another of the hawks, retired Major-General Luo Yuan, emphasized in a recent interview: “China is...not afraid of conflict.”

Whether China is actually close to using military force in the disputed waters of the East and South China Seas can be doubted, but the problem remains that comments like this mean that Japan, and others, cannot take at face value China’s protestations that its rise is peaceful and that its increased defence spending is only intended to ensure that China never again suffers the foreign invasions it faced in the 19th and 20th centuries.

On 20 January in Hong Kong, Japan’s top foreign policy adviser Shotaro Yachi had a speech delivered on his behalf to the China Energy Fund Committee.  Yachi said: “You [China] are now asserting the claim [to the Senkakus] by force.  One must say that the act alone is breaching the rule of international order.  I should like to ask you: is this a China you want to show to the world?”  He added: “Use of force and intimidation will buy you no goodwill from your neighbour or that of the international community.  You will be a superpower  much feared but not much liked.”  Yachi also said that Japan was ready to “activate the dormant right of collective defence”, a comment that was widely interpreted in Japan as meaning that Japan was prepared to rearm in order to face down China.

PLA Major-General Pan Zhenqiang responded on behalf of China to Yachi’s comments by calling them “rude and arrogant” and “reminding” him that it was not in Japan’s interests “to treat China as an enemy”.

This latter remark seemed to refer to China’s willingness to use trade as a punishment.  Japanese imports into China were down 8.6% in 2012, causing Japan to fall from China's fourth-largest trading partner to its fifth most important.  The overall value of trade in goods and services traded between China and Japan shrank 3.9%.

In this context, it was interesting to read Xinhua’s warning to the US following Clinton’s remarks about the Senkaku Islands coming within the remit of the US-Japan security pact.  The official news agency asked rhetorically:  “Will it [the US] help promote regional security and prosperity and thus be able to share the results of economic development of the region?”  It added that with increased tension “the...economic recovery of the US would be largely affected...Instead of pursuing immediate interests, Washington should take its general relations with China into consideration.”

China’s view appears to be that the US – and with it Japan - can’t afford not to back down.  Unfortunately for Beijing, Tokyo and Washington take the exact opposite position, and therein lies the danger.  JdeC.