Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Hint of Taleban compromise.  A former Taleban envoy to Pakistan, Mullah Abdossalam Zaif, published an article last week hinting at a willingness to compromise.  The article listed “six basic and important fundamentals for peace”.  For Zaif, the six fundamentals are:

- A peace strategy to replace the war strategy

- The future government to be inclusive

- The constitution to be revised

- Afghan forces to become truly national

- No foreign forces to stay

- Sharia or Islamic law to be enforced.

Zaif maintains that the main sides in the Afghan struggle do not have problems with these six fundamentals and any differences are over “minor issues”.  He bases this assertion on the experience of the recent inter-Afghan talks in Paris.  However, Zaif said that the present administration of President Karzai remains an impediment.  He said: “In my opinion there is hope for peace in the future, but the element about which I am unsure is the Kabul administration, whose leadership is looking to fish in troubled waters.”

The comments are interesting in that they do not reflect the usual uncompromising Taleban stance.  However, Zaif is realistic about the effect that the imminent foreign withdrawal is having on rival groups.  He said: “Those who fear the Taleban’s return have started re-arming themselves with new weapons in different parts of the country.  This process is in full swing, particularly in the northern and western provinces.”  Unless all groups settle for peace, Zaif warns, renewed civil war is likely.

* Muslim Brotherhood warning to Jordan’s King Abdallah.  Speaking to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, the deputy-controller general of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, Zaki Ben Rsheid, said: “We will give this warning...for the regime to carry out a comprehensive reform process as otherwise the popular movements...will sit down and decide their next steps which are bringing down the regime.”

Ben Rsheid said that the 23 January parliamentary elections, which the MB has boycotted, were a “farce” and that “the state’s future is bleak as there are no programmes, visions, and plans for administering the state”.

King Abdallah has said that for the first time he will consult MPs before appointing the prime minister, but there will be no opposition MPs in parliament to challenge his choice.