Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

It is clear that Iran has not yet given up on significantly improved ties with Egypt even though Egypt would appear to be part of the new Sunni Arab ascendancy that is opposing Iran in Syria and Iraq.

The difficulty and the opportunity presented to Iran by post-Mubarak Egypt was well illustrated by the August 2012 visit by Egypt’s President Muhammad Mursi to Iran.  On the one hand, Mursi was indicating his independence from the United States by visiting Tehran for the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit.  But, on the other, he clearly indicated his differences with Iran by strong criticism of the Assad regime in Syria.

During his August visit, Mursi told the NAM summit: “Our solidarity with the struggle of the Syrian people against an oppressive regime that has lost its legitimacy is an ethical duty, as it is a political and strategic necessity.”  He added: “We all have to announce our full solidarity with the struggle of those seeking freedom and justice in Syria, and translate this sympathy into a clear political vision that supports a peaceful transition to a democratic system of rule that reflects the demands of the Syrian people for freedom.”  His remarks prompted a walkout by the Syrian delegation.

But that Iran still considers Egypt worth an effort to court was made clear this week by Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, who said: “Not much time has passed since the Egyptian revolution, and things will take time to settle.”  Salehi’s comments were made during a visit to Ethiopia where he met his counterparts from Egypt, Burkina Faso, and Benin along with the development minister of Turkey.

The next opportunity for dialogue will be the visit by Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Cairo for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) conference on 6-7 February.  Previewing the visit, the chairman of Iran’s Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Alaeddin Borujerdi said on 28 January: “We understand Egypt’s situation and hope that the presence of the Iranian president at the upcoming OIC summit will help broaden economic, cultural, political, and tourism relations between the two sides.”  Borujerdi added that the visit would play a “very effective” role in improving Iran-Egypt relations.