Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In last week’s issue we looked at China’s recent raging at Tokyo and Washington; the former has been targeted for its refusal to concede any ground on the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and the latter for saying, in particular, that the Japanese-administered islands come within the remit of the US-Japan security pact.  We said that China was misreading both Tokyo and Washington if it thought they could be bullied into concessions by Chinese threats, including economic threats.  It has been interesting in the past week, therefore, to see some Chinese attempts to ease tension.  The trouble remains, however, that no substantial ground has been given, and Japan is responding accordingly.

In our briefing last week, we quoted Japan’s top foreign policy adviser, Shotaro Yachi, as warning in a speech in Hong Kong: “You [China] are now asserting the claim [to the Senkakus] by force.  One must say that the act alone is breaching the rule of international order.  I should like to ask you: is this a China you want to show to the world?”  He added: “Use of force and intimidation will buy you no goodwill from your neighbours or that of the international community.  You will be a superpower much feared but not much liked.”  Yachi also said that Japan was ready to “activate the dormant right of collective defence”, a comment that was widely interpreted in Japan as meaning that Japan was prepared to rearm in order to face down China.

The most-important indication of China’s attempts to ease tension came at a study session of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Politburo on 28 January.  The emphasis of the speech by new general secretary Xi Jinping (who will become China’s president in March) was very much on China’s peaceful rise.  Of course China has never ceased to insist that this is its policy, but Xi did put particular emphasis on the point, saying that “getting rid of wars and realizing peace is the most pressing and ardent wish of the Chinese people in modern times”.

There was much more of this, including Xi’s concluding remarks that “China's development should absolutely not be at the expense of sacrificing other countries' interests”.  He said: “We will definitely not do things that hurt others while benefiting us, and shift our troubles onto others.”

However, as noted above, there was, as ever, a sting in the tail that diluted the impact of the earlier soft words.  Xi warned: “We need to persist in taking the path of peaceful development, but we will absolutely not give up our legitimate rights and interests, and will definitely not sacrifice the state’s core interests”.  China views its claims to sovereignty in the South and East China Seas as “core interests”, along of course with Taiwan.

There was also a hint of the threat we reported last week of economic consequences for those countries that challenge China.  Xi said: “Only when various countries take the path of peaceful development can they expect common development and can there be peaceful co-existence between countries.” [Our added emphasis.]

Coinciding with Xi’s ostensibly reassuring words, there has been a string of Japanese politicians visiting China wishing to smooth relations, and on 28 January the People’s Daily, the official organ of the CPC, carried a positive commentary on these visits by, inter alia, former prime minister Tomiichi Murayama, who is in China this week, trying to improve ties.

But Murayama doesn’t represent the Japanese government, and the reality remains the confirmation given by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on 29 January that Japan is to increase its defence spending in fiscal 2013 for the first time in 11 years and to increase the overall number of its military personnel for the first time in eight years.  According to the finance ministry, the increase in manpower is aimed at strengthening intelligence gathering and monitoring efforts, while the government has said the increase in the defence budget reflects the “increasingly severe” regional security environment (which includes North Korea) and the “increased activity” by China in airspace and waters near Japan.

There is certainly a hint in Xi’s recent remarks that China’s leadership may fear that it might have gone too far in recent months in increasing tension with Japan and that it wants to bring back some equilibrium.  But it is equally clear that China’s leadership has no real capacity for compromise, and that Japan will continue to respond in the time-honoured manner.