Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** India-Pakistan border tension takes its toll.  Border tension along the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Indian from Pakistani-controlled Kashmir has been high since 6 January when the Pakistani shelling of an Indian border village led to an Indian military raid on a Pakistani border post.  One Pakistani soldier was killed and another badly injured.  Pakistan then retaliated with a similar raid in which two Indian soldiers were killed (one of whom was allegedly beheaded).

Following these incidents, on 12 January India’s Air Force chief NAK Browne warned: “We are monitoring the situation carefully because if these things continue to be the way they are and these violations continue to take place, then perhaps we may have to look at some other options for compliance.”

Pakistan has tried not to respond to the Indian rhetoric, with Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar saying: “A successful and independent foreign policy does not mean emulating someone else’s behaviour.  It does not mean being reactive to somebody else’s irresponsible behaviour.”  However, a plan agreed in November 2011 to give India Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status  as  from the New Year has been postponed and is unlikely to be implemented before the general election in May.  Ministerial trips and various cultural exchanges have been called off or postponed.

*** Egypt’s Black Bloc.  A group calling itself the Black Bloc, apparently modelled on European protesters from Germany in the 1970s and at later anti-globalization protests, appeared in Tahrir Square in Cairo and in Alexander on the 25 January anniversary of the 2011 revolution.  A video from the group issued on 23 January says: “We had to appear officially to fight against the regime of the fascist tyrants the Muslim Brotherhood, and their military wing.”  The groups has claimed various arson attacks on Muslim Brotherhood premises.  In an interview with Al-Watan on 27 January, one of the Black Bloc founders, Sharif al-Sirfi, said: "We seek to get the rights of martyrs, and this cannot be achieved except through fair revenge, which is the execution of those who killed the martyrs."

*** German terror warning.  German media outlets have quoted an official security document warning of increased terror attacks in Germany as a result of France’s military intervention in Mali.  It is said that some 50 Islamist militants from Germany received training in terror camps last year and that probably another 100 received training earlier.  About half of this number are now back in Germany.  According to the document: “Fanaticized lone operators or small groups could use the involvement of Germany in Mali, where the Bundeswehr has deployed two Transall transport aircraft to provide logistical assistance for France, as an opportunity to carry out attacks.  They may choose to target German facilities both at home and abroad.”