Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

On 19 February, Russia’s Defence Ministry Press Service and Information Directorate said: “Following a Russian Navy exercise in the Black and Mediterranean seas between 19 and 29 January 2013, the ministry’s leadership made a decision to extend combat duty of Russian warships in the Mediterranean Sea.”

The Russian ministry said that four large landing ships will be deployed in the Mediterranean by March, namely the Kaliningrad, Shabalin, Saratov, and Azov.  It added: “The quantitative composition of the group as well as the types of ships to be operated in this region will further be defined on account of the developing situation.”

Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency quoted “a source in military-diplomatic circles” as saying: “Though the list of the tasks set before the group of Russian warships is not disclosed, however based on the situation developing in the region and the presence of large landing ships in the group it is possible to assume that the key task of the Russian naval forces will be the participation in a possible evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria.”

Whatever the true purpose of the deployment, the Russian announcement coincided with a threat from the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA).  On 19 February, the FSA announced its first military operation in the pro-Assad port city of Tartus, where the Russian naval base is located.  The attack reportedly included the firing of “several” rocket-propelled grenades and light machineguns.

FSA ‘chief of staff’ Brigadier-General Salim Idriss then told the Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat that the FSA was prepared to target Russian ships “because these ships are supplying the regime with weapons, ammunition, and experts”.  He added that the FSA would consider the Russian ships “legitimate targets for the FSA as long as they are backing the ruling regime with weapons that are used to kill Syrians”.