Courcy's Intelligence Brief - 20 February 2013

Items

• Erdogan driven by presidential ambition

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  In our 30 January issue we highlighted the increasing disillusion of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the European Union.  It is important to note that Erdogan’s apparent turn away from Europe (he has suggested membership of the Russia/China-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization - SCO - as an alternative) is not the whim of a disillusioned leader; it has public backing as well - and keeping in tune with public opinion is essential to Erdogan as he seeks to move Turkey from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system.  Erdogan intends to be the country’s first directly elected president, with full executive powers.

  Since Erdogan made his remarks about potentially joining the SCO as an alternative to the EU, there has been some attempt at backtracking.  On 14 February, for instance, Turkey’s State Minister for the European Union, Egemen Bagis, made a speech in London reiterating Turkey’s westward orientation.  He said that Turkey “has been moving westwards for 1,000 years”, adding with reference to the EU’s insistence on improvements to Turkey’s democracy and other reforms: “The EU is our dietician.  The EU is a good prescription.  We are determined to implement this prescription.”

  But these reassuring words from Bagis cannot hide the fact that public opinion has moved strongly against the EU, in part because of the problem that Bagis himself highlighted in London, namely the fact that Turkey, unlike any other applicant for EU membership, has been “kept in the waiting room for 54 years”.

  Turkey’s elite remain firmly in favour of the EU, with a recent poll showing that out of a panel of 202 foreign policy experts, 87% were of the view that Turkey should continue to aim for full membership.  But the same poll indicated growing opposition to the EU.  The poll, conducted by the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (Edam), found that two-thirds of respondents believe that Ankara should give up on its pursuit of full membership of the EU.

  Among voters for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), only 34% support European Union membership.  The level of support for the EU drops further, to 30%, amongst voters for the main opposition centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) and to only 15% among supporters of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

  Perhaps unsurprisingly, the only voters still showing strong support for EU membership are backers of the Kurdish-based Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), amongst whom a colossal 88% favour pressing ahead with membership talks.

  These findings are significant, as public opinion is even more important than usual to Erdogan at the moment as he seeks to draft and enact a new constitution that would move Turkey from its parliamentary system towards a strong executive presidency – a presidency which Erdogan himself wishes to inherit now that he is in his third (and final, according to his party’s rules) term as prime minister.

  The present constitution was written after the military coup in 1980, and intensive efforts are under way to draft a new one more to Erdogan’s liking – that is one in which the president holds the bulk of the power, not parliament.  The largely ceremonial presidency is currently held by President Abdullah Gul, whose term ends in 2014, a year before the next parliamentary elections, which, under Justice and Development Party (AKP) rules, should mark the end of Erdogan’s three-term premiership.

  Erdogan has not specifically said that he intends to run for the presidency, but when asked a straight question in an interview broadcast on 1 February he said only that it was too early to talk about it.  His true intentions can be seen in his long-term planning.

  As well as moving to revise the constitutional role of the president, Erdogan used a referendum to back his 2010 proposal for the president to be elected directly rather than by parliament.  Turkey’s next president – whatever powers he ends up with – will be the first in Turkey’s history to be elected by popular vote, something that Erdogan sees as being in his favour, as well as being a more suitable process for an executive presidency.

  Sources in Ankara also believe that it is Erdogan’s overriding desire for constitutional change that is behind his current push for peace with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).  Support from the Kurdish-based BDP is important for Erdogan’s constitutional plans as the BDP can provide the votes necessary either to push the constitutional changes through parliament or to legislate for a referendum.

  Those opposed to Erdogan’s plans don’t like his authoritarian bent, and his talk about joining the SCO rather than the EU because of “shared values” does not reassure his critics.  Central Asia is hardly a model of democracy, and nor are the SCO’s principal patrons, China and Russia.  The more vocal critics are now saying that rather than Turkey becoming a model for the Arab Spring, Egypt (under the Muslim Brotherhood) is becoming the model for Turkey.  JdeC.

  NOTE: One of the more alarming recent signals to emerge from Turkey was a comment made by Turkey’s ambassador to Chad following the French intervention in Mali.  In a tweet dated 25 January Ambassador Ahmet Kavas said: “The word terror is French-made.  It cannot be the work of Muslims.  Al-Qaeda is different from terror.”

• Japan’s main focus remains China not North Korea

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  North Korea’s 12 February nuclear test, its third after earlier ones in 2006 and 2009, has no doubt had a profound effect on Japan, but the latest opinion surveys show that – despite this - it is China that now worries Japan the most.  This is a significant change from previous years, and this new perception in Japan that China poses the greatest military threat, not North Korea, is likely to persist.

  The latest snapshot of Japanese opinion was provided by a Gallup poll published by the Yomiuri Shimbun on 15 February.  It shows that 79% of Japanese view China as a military threat to the country, against 77% who view North Korea as a military threat, 45% who fear Russia, 39% who see the Middle East as a military danger, and a surprisingly high 37% who cite South Korea (up from 23% last year due to the dispute over the Dokdo or Liancourt Rocks) as a military threat to Japan.

  This is the first time since the annual survey began in 2000 that China has outranked North Korea in threat perception, and the main reason is undoubtedly China’s increasing belligerence in the East China Sea over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.  As of Monday, for instance, Japanese sources were reporting that there were three Chinese maritime surveillance boats operating within Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands, one of which had sailed within 1km of the disputed islands, which is the closest that a Chinese government vessel has so far ventured.

  Tokyo also clearly sees China as being implicated, by sins of omission if not by sins of commission, in the North Korean escalation.  Speaking on 15 February, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga indicated clearly that Japan feels that China has sufficient influence in Pyongyang to stop any further escalation.

  Suga said: “China is the country with the most influence on North Korea so it is extremely important that it takes a stern response.”  This is not quite the same as saying that China was responsible for allowing North Korea to proceed with its nuclear test in the first place, but Suga is definitely saying that China needs to put a stop to things before they get out of hand.

  It is possible that China is feeling the heat from all this because it agreed for a senior Japanese foreign ministry official (the director-general of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau of the foreign affairs ministry, Shinsuke Sugiyama) to visit Beijing from 19-21 February to discuss both the North Korea situation and the recent incident near the disputed islands in which a Chinese naval frigate locked its radar onto a Japanese destroyer.  A planned visit to China by the same official in December was cancelled.

  Meanwhile, on North Korea, influential Japanese experts believe (as do many American experts) that deterrence will work.  History suggests that nuclear weapons will only be used against those who cannot retaliate in kind, and there is no reason to suppose that North Korea is immune to this logic.  And, if that is so, then behind the scenes there will be Japanese policymakers who will even see positives in North Korea’s latest nuclear test.  Indeed, they will see it as a triple boon as, first of all, it provides an alibi for Japanese rearmament and for re-interpretation of the pacifist provisions of the constitution; secondly, it gives Japan an opportunity to point to China’s irresponsibility in foreign affairs; and, thirdly, it reinforces for the American public the importance of the US’s ‘pivot’ to Asia.

  Those who take this view will also be arguing that tensions on the Korean Peninsula may not be quite as bad as the nuclear test implies.  It can be taken as a relatively positive sign, for instance, that the North Korean nuclear test on 12 February took place before the inauguration of South Korea’s new president, Park Geun-hye.  Although elected in December, her inauguration does not take place until 25 February, so technically the North’s nuclear test did not take place on her watch.

  Also, the signals from the incoming Park administration suggest that Seoul may be prepared to go some way to avoid any further escalation.  Park herself has been indicating a willingness to be flexible towards the North.  In mid-January, for instance, while signalling her determination to be tough on the nuclear issue, she also indicated her flexibility, telling a visiting US delegation: “North Korea’s nuclear development is unpardonable and [I] will react sternly to it, but the window for talks, including on humanitarian aid, [will remain open].”

  Also dovish is Park’s nomination of Ryoo Kihl-jae as head of inter-Korean affairs.  The appointment of Ryoo, a moderately conservative academic, is in line with Park’s statement that the window for talks will “remain open”, given his repeated emphasis on the importance of maintaining contact with Pyongyang.  After his appointment, Ryoo said: “I will make efforts to strengthen national security and build trust on the Korean Peninsula at the same time.”

  Of course, there are also signals of a different nature coming out of Pyongyang, with indications that the 12 February test may be followed up by further testing – and, indeed, that may be what happens.  Nevertheless, it is important not to overlook the tentative signs of progress that have been emanating from Pyongyang during the past year.

  Back in July 2012, for instance, we pointed to the unusual coverage of economic news by Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the ruling Worker’s Party of Korea.  There was a similar emphasis in Kim Jong un’s New Year address, during which he stressed that “building an economic giant” was the most important task.  He also said that “all economic undertakings this year should be geared to effecting a radical increase in production and stabilizing and improving the people’s living standards”.

  All of this suggests that the Japanese public is right in its assessment of the relative dangers to Japan of China and North Korea, but none of it will prevent Tokyo from exploiting the North Korean menace as an excuse for bolstering its armed forces.

• Syrian rebels threaten Russian ships

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  On 19 February, Russia’s Defence Ministry Press Service and Information Directorate said: “Following a Russian Navy exercise in the Black and Mediterranean seas between 19 and 29 January 2013, the ministry’s leadership made a decision to extend combat duty of Russian warships in the Mediterranean Sea.”

  The Russian ministry said that four large landing ships will be deployed in the Mediterranean by March, namely the Kaliningrad, Shabalin, Saratov, and Azov.  It added: “The quantitative composition of the group as well as the types of ships to be operated in this region will further be defined on account of the developing situation.”

  Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency quoted “a source in military-diplomatic circles” as saying: “Though the list of the tasks set before the group of Russian warships is not disclosed, however based on the situation developing in the region and the presence of large landing ships in the group it is possible to assume that the key task of the Russian naval forces will be the participation in a possible evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria.”

  Whatever the true purpose of the deployment, the Russian announcement coincided with a threat from the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA).  On 19 February, the FSA announced its first military operation in the pro-Assad port city of Tartus, where the Russian naval base is located.  The attack reportedly included the firing of “several” rocket-propelled grenades and light machineguns.

  FSA ‘chief of staff’ Brigadier-General Salim Idriss then told the Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat that the FSA was prepared to target Russian ships “because these ships are supplying the regime with weapons, ammunition, and experts”.  He added that the FSA would consider the Russian ships “legitimate targets for the FSA as long as they are backing the ruling regime with weapons that are used to kill Syrians”.

• Risk pointers

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  *** Further blow to Egypt’s tourism sector as economy languishes.  One indisputable victim of the Egyptian revolution has been its tourism industry.  At its peak, the tourism industry brought 15m visitors a year to Egypt.  This is now down to about 3m.  The latest blow has been the announcement by the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government that licenses to sell alcohol in Cairo, Alexandria, and other large cities will not be renewed as they fall due.  For the moment, tourist centres such as Sharm al-Sheikh will not be directly affected, but the whole tourism industry is suffering not just from falling visitors but also from lack of confidence.  No one is investing in the industry because of the uncertainties.

  The ruling Muslim Brotherhood seems to believe that it can weather the economic storm, mostly with the help of subventions from Qatar, one of the main backers of the post-Arab Spring rise of the Muslim Brotherhood.  But moves that further damage the tourism sector are far from helpful, and talks with the IMF to conclude a $4.8bn loan agreement remain frozen.  An agreement with the IMF could lead to a further $12bn in funding from the World Bank, the European Union, the US, and the Gulf.

  The problem with the IMF talks is that any agreement will require the government to implement cuts in subsidies and other austerity measures, but the government cannot contemplate these ahead of new elections due in April or May.  Nevertheless, it does accept the eventual need for them, according to national security adviser Essam Haddad.  Haddad says: “It is very well known by the IMF that nobody would do such an action just before the elections.  However, our message is very clear.  These reforms are essential for the economic recovery.  There is no other choice.”

  In the meantime, Iran senses an opportunity in Egypt’s economic distress.  In its 20 February edition, the hard-line Keyhan daily argued that Egypt will be “passing through a transitional phase that will last for at least 2 to 3 years”.  During this phase, the paper says, Egypt will not be able “to make definite decisions regarding its relations with Iran”.   However, the hardline paper adds, “Egypt needs help in trade and economy and at the same time has an important market.  The US, Europe and Saudi Arabia are not helping.  Iran can penetrate this market in a subtle way.  If we manage to link the economies of the two countries, it would be possible to gradually take steps in the political arena as well."

  *** Al-Qaeda “training recruits in Tunisia”.  Algerian sources say that Al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) is training as many as 5,000 recruits in southern Tunisia.