Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Sources with inside knowledge of the Iranian regime say that Iran is working furiously to capitalize on the downfall of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) regime in Egypt.  Ever since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, Tehran had hopes that it could forge an alliance with an MB-ruled Egypt regardless of the obvious sectarian divide.  Despite a great deal of Iranian persistence, this never quite happened; but now the downfall of the MB is opening up new opportunities and Tehran is moving swiftly to exploit them.

Well-connected Iraqi Shia figures confirm that the driving force behind Iran’s policy on post-coup Egypt is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  Khamenei, we are told, has instructed senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official Qasim Sulaymani to provide intelligence and other support to the MB’s military wing in Egypt. 

Khamenei’s motive for supporting the Muslim Brotherhood is (above all) to prevent the extension of Saudi Arabian influence – and Saudi influence in Egypt will certainly increase strongly for as long as the putschists retain power.  Speaking on 19 August, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Saud Al-Faisal, argued that what had happened in Egypt “reflects the will of 30m Egyptians”, and he castigated the Muslim Brotherhood for fomenting “war in the streets, the destruction of public and private property, terrorization of citizens, loss of innocent lives, burning of whole governorates…[and refusing] to respond to the Egyptian popular will as well as the rejection of all reconciliation initiatives”.

In slightly apocalyptic terms, the prince then warned those Western countries which were less than enthusiastic about the coup and the restoration of order that “the blaze and ruin will not be limited to Egypt alone, but they will be reflected on all those who have contributed or stood by problems and disorders taking place in Egypt today”.

The prince also said that Saudi Arabia would support the new Egyptian regime financially and fill any gaps left by Western countries withdrawing aid over the bloody crackdown against MB protesters.  On this, as on so much else, Saudi Arabia is aligned with Israel.  Speaking on the same day as Prince Saud Al-Faisal, ‘a senior Israeli official’ was quoted locally as saying that Israel believes that restoring stability is the priority and that “the army is the only player than can restore law and order”.

Of course this alignment of Israel with the Egyptian army, and with Saudi Arabia, greatly aids Iran in its drive to co-opt the Muslim Brotherhood.  Capitalizing on this point, on 21 August the hard-line Iranian daily Keyhan accused Saudi Arabia of “implementing an American-Zionist scenario” and acting “in complete coordination with the West and the Zionist regime”.

Iran has now indicated to Hamas (the Palestinian wing of the MB) that it is open to a rapprochement and will overlook the fact that Hamas has sided with the Syrian rebels against its erstwhile patron Bashar al-Assad, who is strongly backed by Iran. 

One difficulty for Iran is that it is not the only game in town.  Even though it has been deserted by the United States, the Muslim Brotherhood can still count on the support of Turkey which has virulently condemned the Egyptian coup as well as the ties between the Egyptian military and Israel.  But Iran has one key advantage: it can go much further in its support of the MB and Hamas than Nato-member Turkey can. 

In particular, we are told that Khamenei has ordered the IRG to step up its support for Hamas’s military wing, the Izz-al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, and to encourage it to engage in military action in the Sinai Peninsula against the Egyptian military.  The Muslim Brotherhood is to be supplied with arms via Yemen, the Red Sea, Sudan, and Libya.

The Syrian question remains a problem, but Tehran apparently believes that it can reach an accommodation with the MB over Assad, encouraging it to support a negotiated settlement.  Tehran also believes that it can forge an alliance with the MB and Hamas to oppose the takfiri Salafist trends, including Al-Qaeda, although it recognizes that some tactical alliances may be necessary and/or desirable in the fight against the Egyptian army and Saudi influence.

What all this suggests is that a sectarian explanation for everything that is happening in the Middle East is not sufficient.  The situation is more complex, and it has been made immeasurably more so by the collapse of MB rule in Egypt.  JdeC.