Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Israelis remain sceptical about peace process.  Given that Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is a reluctant peace maker, the fact that the Israeli public appears lukewarm at best adds to the feeling that the renewed peace process will not go anywhere fast. 

A poll published in Maariv on 16 August showed that 57% of Israelis believe they were harmed by the Oslo Accords, and most significantly 53% say that they object to withdrawing from any part of the West Bank in return for recognition of Israel by the Palestinians and a waiving of the right of return for refugees.

*** China sees lessons in Egypt.  Many Chinese commentators have been drawing predictable lessons for China from the turmoil in Egypt, but the PRC-owned Hong Kong daily Ta Kung Pao has even seen lessons for Hong Kong in the unrest.  A commentary published on 19 August said that the chaos in Egypt proved that Hong Kong should not “indiscriminately copy the Western democratic model” as it could “bring economic development to a standstill and put society into chaos”. 

The commentary added: “The democratic tragedy in Egypt has shown that large-scale street protests easily give rise to confrontations and bloodshed.  Hong Kong should draw on the tragic experience of Egypt so as to prevent society from running into chaos.”

*** Japan will still avoid the overseas deployment of troops.  On 17 August, Japan’s Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera said that the lifting of the ban on participating in collective self-defence would not entail the overseas deployment of troops.

The minister said: “We will never go to other countries for military actions.”  He added that Japan “will also determine by itself if it should exercise the right to collective self-defence”.

However, Onodera did stress the importance of lifting the ban on collective self-defence, saying: “It would be extremely difficult under the current interpretation to address a case in which a US warship deployed to protect Japan were to come under attack on the high seas.”

Onodera’s remarks appeared to be aimed at the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s coalition partner, New Komeito.  New Komeito has joined the Social Democratic party and the Japanese Communist Party in opposing the plan specifically on the grounds that it could lead to the use of force overseas by Japan.