Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

On 19 September, the RIA Novosti news agency quoted Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu as describing Nato as a threat and China as a strategic partner.  Shoygu was quoting as saying of Nato: “It is an alliance that is constantly expanding, approaching the borders of our country; Nato is beefing up the missile defence system; Russian cannot see it any other way.”  On the other hand, as well as describing China as a strategic partner, Shoygu told the Valday discussion club that cooperation between Russia and China was “excellent”.  Yet, for all this, competition between Russia and China in Central Asia appears to be growing.

On 23 September, a defence ministry official said that Russia and Kyrgyzstan were to boost “military-technical cooperation” ahead of the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan in 2014.  On the same day, President Putin described his priorities as incoming chairman of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) as strengthening the grouping’s external borders, boosting military cooperation, and improving command and control of the CSTO’s collective forces.  The CSTO links Russia, Armenia, and Belarus with the three Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Yet just as Putin is pursuing this ambitious drive for further unity in at least part of the ex-Soviet space, China has been making a concerted effort to increase its presence in Central Asia, as exemplified by President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.  One well-placed Chinese academic told the Global Times on 12 September that Xi’s tour “stipulated the blueprint of the regional development with a magnitude that was rarely seen before and pointed out the important role Central Asia plays in China’s westward strategy”.

On 7 September, China Daily’s Hong Kong edition had opined: “China and the Central Asian countries are more and more becoming an inseparable community of interests and destiny.  China has become the biggest investment source in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the second biggest in Kyrgyzstan, the biggest trade partner of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and the second biggest of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.”

Furthermore, this Chinese interest in Central Asia is linked to a wider strategy that encompasses Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Natural gas extracted in Turkmenistan by China National Petroleum Corporation will be transported through pipelines to China’s Xinjiang province via Afghanistan and Pakistan.  China is also talking about creating an ‘economic corridor’ linking north-western China with the Chinese-built Pakistani port of Gwadar.

Shoygu claims to be concerned about Nato “approaching the borders of our country” while being unconcerned about China.  At some point that perception is likely to change.