Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In last week’s issue we argued that Turkey had a great opportunity in the Middle East, if only Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan could recognize it.  Now a survey of Middle East and North African (Mena) countries has shown exactly how far Turkey’s popularity has declined in the past three years.  However, as we argued last week, the survey also shows that the position is not irretreivable.  Even if the trend is clearly, worryingly, and (we would argue) justifiably negative, Turkey’s position is still relatively good.  Across the Mena region, the United Arab Emirates is rated first in terms of positive perceptions, followed by Saudi Arabia and then Turkey.

In 2011, 78% of respondents in 16 countries had a positive image of Turkey; in 2013 the proportion is down to 59%.  The decline was most precipitous in Egypt, where Turkey has been a strong backer of the Muslim Brotherhood and has opposed its ouster.  In 2011, 86% expressed their approval of Turkey; in 2013 the proportion is 38%.

A director of the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (Tesev) noted: “The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East Survey has been conducted for the past five years.  Popularity of Turkey was very high in 2009.  The decline recorded in the last three years is due to the turmoil in the region and Turkey’s related policies.”

The proportion of people believing that Ankara should play a larger role in the region has decreased from 71% in 2011 to 60% in 2013, and fewer people see Turkey as a model for the region.  In 2011, 61% saw Turkey as a model, in 2013 the proportion is 51%, with a particularly low rate in Syria, Egypt, and Iran.

Other interesting findings include the fact that only 37% now see the Arab Spring as being positive for their countries, as against 52% in 2011.  Also interesting is the fact that while economic problems topped the list of concerns in all countries except Iraq in 2012, in 2013 political and security issues were top of the list in Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia, while in Iraq and Libya the Western presence was seen as the most important issue.

Finally, and again of key interest, is the fact that in Iran 86% list economic issues as their main concern.  It is that finding that explains Iran’s most recent diplomatic moves, but it is also a finding that strengthens the arguments of those in the West who say this is no time to go soft on Iran.  JdeC.