Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Australia rallies to Japan.  Commonsense tells one it would be the case (as we argued last week), but high-level sources have since confirmed that China’s unilateral action to declare an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) that covers the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has strengthened both Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resolve and case for boosting Japan’s defence capabilities, including by changing the constitution.

As regards wider reactions, it has been interesting in particular to see Australia providing such strong support for Japan given its past proclivity for hedging.

Beijing’s ambassador to Canberra was called in to explain what China thought it was up to with its provocative move, and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop issued a statement saying that Australia “has made clear its opposition to any coercive or unilateral actions to change the status quo in the East China Sea”.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott, for his part, described Australia as a “strong ally” of Japan.  The best that former prime minister Kevin Rudd could do in 2009 was to refer to Japan as “a critical strategic partner”.  Now Abbott has called Japan a “strong ally”.

As one Australian expert noted: “Australia is injecting some much needed clarity about its strategic priorities.  Australia strongly believes that US primacy in Asia is vital both to its own interests and to the regional order more generally, and that any effort by China to change that setting will be destabilizing.”

And it was a reasonably brave move given Australia’s former proclivity for hedging.  It prompted China to respond by saying: “China urges the Australian side to immediately correct its mistakes so as to avoid hurting the cooperative relationship between China and Australia.”

There are, of course, many influential voices in Australia and elsewhere urging their governments not to fall out with China in the interests of business, trade, and economic growth, but these voices are not currently in the ascendancy.

*** Mending fences with Hezbollah.  In what will be taken as further bad news by Saudi Arabia and Israel, Lebanese sources have been reporting increased European interest in improving ties with Hezbollah despite the categorization of Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist group by the EU.  Sources in Lebanon say that the Europeans, led by France, wish to rebuild contacts with the political wing of the group in part because of the growing threat from Sunni takfiri and fundamentalist groups.