Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Russia’s strategic concerns.  On 21 January, Russia’s Defence Minister General Sergey Shoygu was reported locally as defining Russia’s main defence challenges as “the deployment of a global missile defence system and the placement of its elements near the Russian borders, the creation of effective new precision weapons with conventional warheads, and the militarization of outer space”.

Shoygu added that Russia was “forced to retaliate” and that President Vladimir Putin had “set a task of securing the country’s defence in the new environment: strengthening our nuclear triad further, shaping a global intelligence system, including a space force, and developing general-purpose forces – the air force, the navy , and the ground troops.”

Putin’s hardline stance on defence and other issues continues to pay dividends in the polls.  The latest Levada poll, published on 20 January, revealed that if there were an immediate presidential election 68% of Russians who are willing to vote and know who they would vote for say they would vote for Putin.  This is up 10 percentage points from December.

*** Pakistan calls off polio vaccination drive after attacks.  On 21 January, three members of an anti-polio team working in the Qayyumabad area of Karachi were killed by gunmen and as a result the anti-polio drive in Sindh province has been suspended.  The attack came when the team were administering vaccination drops to infants.  It is possible that two other team members have been kidnapped.

In 2003, the northern Nigerian state of Kano banned polio vaccination because of fears that it caused infertility and spread HIV.  Within 18 months the disease had reappeared in 12 African countries in which it had previously been eradicated.

*** The Jordan Valley and Israel.  On 20 January, former Israeli general and prominent businessman Oded Tirah joined the debate on the wide of the hawks over security in the Jordan Valley.  In an article in Maariv, he said: “Opinions voiced recently that we can concede the Jordan Valley without damaging security play fast and loose with the truth.”

For Tirah, the Jordan Valley is critical for moving troops north and south to meet threats as well as for preventing threats from Jordan – and to it.  On this latter point he said: “If we do not hold the Jordan Valley, Jordan itself will be exposed to the danger of a Palestinian revolution since it will be possible to transfer guerrilla equipment into Jordan and aid the overthrow of the king.”