Nearshoring

Some efforts have been made to quantify nearshoring and identify future winners from the process. US Census Bureau data shows, for example, that in 2018-2021 US imports from China contracted by 5%-6% while imports from Asean (Association of Southeast Asia Nations) grew by over 50% followed by imports from India (+35%) and those from Europe, Canada, and Mexico (all in the 10%-20% range). Total US imports in 2022 were US$3.27tn. If China were to lose an additional 5% of its share of US imports that would represent roughly US$165bn of US market share that would be available to be captured by other, non-Chinese exporters.