Latin American Security & Strategic Review

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Security & Strategic Review - October 2026

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Nicaraguan lawmakers passed a raft of constitutional reforms on 1 September, designed to further cement the power of authoritarian co-presidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, and secure a dynastic succession, drawing widespread international criticism. The reform package, which requires approval in a second reading scheduled for 18 January 2027, amends more than a dozen articles of the constitution.

Security & Strategic Review - September 2026

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LEADER
- De la Espriella rips up Petro’s security strategy in Colombia
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- BOLIVIA: Trouble on the Brazilian border
- PERU/BOLIVIA: Concerns about Russian recruitment
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Security experts criticise political ‘noise’ on crime
- PARAGUAY-BRAZIL: Legacy of Triple Alliance War sparks controversy
- CHILE: Gov't casts doubt on dictatorship disappearance list
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: ICE deaths strain US relations
- MEXICO: Progress in combatting femicide?
- MEXICO: Gov’t shutters private military-style schools
- MEXICO: Renewed concerns over journalist safety
CENTRAL AMERICA
- COSTA RICA: Fernández ramps up conflict with judicial branch
- PANAMA/REGION: Seeking to downplay contraband concerns
- NICARAGUA: Doubling down further on opposition
CARIBBEAN
- HAITI: Refocusing away from Port-au-Prince

The 7.4-magnitude earthquake which shook western Colombia on 10 August, just three days after President Abelardo de la Espriella took office, meant that his security plans took a backseat during his first weeks in power.

Security & Strategic Review - August 2026

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LEADER
- Tensions rise as US eyes corruption in Mexico
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Fujimorismo returns
- REGION: Peru bucks Andean trend of rising coca cultivation
- ECUADOR: Militarisation continues under new security plan
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Alleged corruption scandal weighs on Milei government
- REGION: Regional leaders seek deeper security cooperation
- BRAZIL: Rising concern over corruption in Rio
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Search collectives demand justice
- MEXICO: High-profile case sparks domestic violence concerns
CENTRAL AMERICA
- REGION: New Sica secretary general sparks hopes for integration push
- GUATEMALA: Stronger ties with US following AG change
- HONDURAS: Controversial law protecting agro-industrial sector takes effect
- COSTA RICA: Moving on hardline promises
CARIBBEAN
- REGION: Addressing the fertility problem
- REGION: Keeping the call for reparations in the news

Mexico’s government led by President Claudia Sheinbaum has been working hard to demonstrate to the US administration of President Donald Trump that it is taking the fight against drug cartels seriously.

Security & Strategic Review - July 2026

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LEADER
- Brazil’s biggest gangs placed on US terrorism list
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Security policy U-turn expected under De la Espriella
- VENEZUELA: US kills Tren de Aragua leader in air strike
- VENEZUELA: The gangs in the way of a mining boom
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Deforestation risks remain despite annual decrease
- CHILE: New minister unveils security plan
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Election annulment reform causes controversy
- MEXICO: Tensions with Chihuahua
- MEXICO: Environmental challenges loom large
CENTRAL AMERICA
- REGION: Press freedom hopes rise in Guatemala as situation worsens elsewhere
- PANAMA: Government under pressure over deadly prison riot and jail break
- GUATEMALA: Controversial mine reopens
- NICARAGUA: More signs of strengthening ties with Moscow
CARIBBEAN
- HAITI: Guterres sees ‘faint glimmers of hope’
- CUBA: Listening stations
- CUBA: Leadership signs up for economic reforms

Since 5 June Brazil’s two most powerful criminal groups, the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV), have been included on the US government’s list of foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs).

Security & Strategic Review - June 2026

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LEADER
- Spotlight on Cuba’s Gaesa as Castro indicted
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: Rodríguez looks for friends in the Caribbean
- VENEZUELA: Political prisoner’s death renews scrutiny of amnesty process
- ECUADOR: Grappling with a medicine shortage
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Lula boosts funding for law enforcement
- BRAZIL: Governing institutions clash over far-right rioter sentencing bill
- CHILE: Security minister replaced after two months in office
- PARAGUAY: Peña under pressure over Taiwan visit
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum in tight spot as US escalates campaign against cartels
- MEXICO: Patching up relations with Spain
CENTRAL AMERICA
- GUATEMALA: End of an era as Porras steps down
CARIBBEAN
- REGION: Building state capacity seen as key to protecting Caribbean democracy

The US administration led by President Donald Trump continues to ramp up its maximum pressure campaign on Cuba, aimed at forcing political and economic change, recently indicting Cuba’s former president Raúl Castro (2008-2018) over the deadly shootdown of two planes in 1996.

Security & Strategic Review - May 2026

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LEADER
- Rodríguez coup-proofs Venezuela’s government
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Assassination threats hang over presidential candidates
- PERU: Balcázar on the ropes over fighter jet purchase
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Indigenous groups give tepid endorsement for Lula
- CHILE: Kast hails partnership with Milei
- CHILE: Government seeks to address school violence
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Challenges abound for new foreign minister
- MEXICO: Gulf oil spill prompts concern
- MEXICO: Shooting sparks questions over tourist safety
CENTRAL AMERICA
- COSTA RICA: Shoring up ties with the US
- REGION: Rights groups reiterate calls for end to gender violence
- NICARAGUA: Marking a key anniversary
CARIBBEAN
- GUYANA/TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Facing up to a reversal of fortunes
- REGION: UK-Caribbean ministerial forum emphasises rules-based order

General Vladimir Padrino López was a stalwart of Venezuela’s Chavista regime, in which he had served as defence minister since 2014.

Security & Strategic Review - April 2026

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LEADER
- What next for Mexico after El Mencho killing?
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: US joins Noboa’s war on crime
- ECUADOR: Opposition warns of democratic erosion
- BOLIVIA: ‘King of the South’ captured in Santa Cruz
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Chinese cable project forces Kast to walk diplomatic tightrope
- PARAGUAY: Government ramps up militarised response to organised crime
- BRAZIL: Overdue justice delivered in Marielle Franco murder case
- URUGUAY: Government unveils new security objectives
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum bets on electoral reform
CENTRAL AMERICA
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele under fresh pressure over human rights
- COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA: Renewed focus on cross-border illegal gold mining
- GUATEMALA: First ever prison census
CARIBBEAN
- CUBA: Four scenarios for 2026
- HAITI: A crucial few months

The killing of Mexico’s most powerful drug kingpin, Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, on 22 February served a major blow to the cartel he led, the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), and a significant boost for President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Security & Strategic Review - March 2026

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LEADER
- Crime concerns in Brazil remain high despite drop in murders
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: Flawed amnesty bill signed into law
- COLOMBIA: Has the ‘total peace’ project been a total failure?
- ECUADOR: New security plan after record murders in 2025
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Lula adopts fight against femicides as rallying cry
- URUGUAY: Government affirms partnership with China
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Treading a fine line with Cuba
- MEXICO: Security struggles in Sinaloa
- MEXICO: Drought levels hit rock bottom
CENTRAL AMERICA
- NICARAGUA: Feeling the heat from Washington
- HONDURAS: GIEI presents final report on high-profile Cáceres murder
- PANAMA: Strengthening ties with the US
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele claims record drug haul amid other security achievements
CARIBBEAN
- BARBADOS: Mottley extends her dominance

Preliminary annual crime data for 2025 published by Brazil’s justice and public security ministry show that last year had the lowest number of homicides since 2015, and that murders have been declining every year for the last five years.

Security & Strategic Review - February 2026

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LEADER
- Honduras’ Asfura facing myriad issues upon taking office
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Elections set to be shaped by crime concerns
- VENEZUELA: Was Maduro betrayed by his inner circle?
- COLOMBIA: Spying allegations open rift in government
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: New justice minister under scrutiny ahead of elections
- CHILE: Prosecutor to lead security ministry under Kast
- CHILE: Activists ramp up calls for measures to prevent fires
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Security serves as flashpoint with US
- MEXICO: Flagship rail project under scrutiny
- MEXICO: Cartels level-up with drone use
CENTRAL AMERICA
- GUATEMALA: Fragile security situation exposed
- COSTA RICA: Homicide figures remain near peak
CARIBBEAN
- CUBA: Fears grow of possible humanitarian crisis
- JAMAICA: Dealing with the consequences of Hurricane Melissa
- REGION: Caricom members struggling with the Trump challenge

Nasry Asfura of the right-wing Partido Nacional (PN) has been sworn in as Honduras’ new president following an electoral process mired in controversy, and now has the task of dealing with complex issues around security and international relations. Asfura, 67, is a businessman of Palestinian descent who built a fortune in the construction sector before moving into politics.

Security & Strategic Review - January 2026

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LEADER
- US aims to steer Venezuela after capturing Maduro
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Plan for return of foreign military bases hits the buffers
- BOLIVIA: Paz administration signals coca crackdown
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Kast seeks unity in quest for security reform
- BRAZIL: Lula faces challenges in projecting climate leadership
- ARGENTINA: Military leader assumes civilian government post
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Challenges ahead for new attorney general
- MEXICO: Highway crime in the spotlight
- MEXICO: Another guilty plea from son of El Chapo
CENTRAL AMERICA
- HONDURAS: Libre to leave office with mixed record on security
- PANAMA: Mulino floats new anti-mafia law after record drug seizure
- NICARAGUA: Changes at CSJ as Murillo seeks to consolidate position
- GUATEMALA: OAS mission signals concern over judicial selection processes
CARIBBEAN
- ST VINCENT & THE GRENADINES: The end of Comrade Ralph
- ST LUCIA: Pierre and the SLP face a more challenging second term

The 13-year presidency of Nicolás Maduro (2013-2026) came to a dramatic end on 3 January when US special forces seized the Venezuelan leader and his wife against a backdrop of airstrikes in Caracas and whisked them away to face drugs and weapons charges in a New York courtroom.