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The return of the Monroe Doctrine
Trump, Venezuela, and what’s to come
At round 2am local time in the morning of 3 January this year, a force of some 150 US military aircraft used bombs and missiles to attack a series of targets in Caracas and outlying areas, clearing the way for approximately 200 Special Forces troops to come in by helicopter, surround a presidential compound at a military base in the capital, and capture President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Celia Flores.... Read More
There is a case to be made that the events in Caracas on 3 January represent a fundamental shift, a turning point or watershed, in relations between Latin America and the United States, with the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean having to cope with a deep change in the US foreign policy stance.... Read More
Other forms of US military pressure against Venezuela preceded and ran in tandem with Maduro’s ouster under Operation Ultimate Resolve.... Read More
In November 2025 the US State Department and intelligence agencies completed work on a new document summing up the country’s National Security Strategy (NSS).... Read More
Coincidentally with the publication of these documents, the Chinese government published its own Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) strategy paper in December giving a clear signal that it intends to continue expanding its footprint in the Western Hemisphere.... Read More
Donald Trump has for many years supported protectionist economic policies and opposed globalisation.... Read More
This year, several important Latin American countries are changing political direction.... Read More
One way of assessing the change in circumstances that is happening in Latin America and the Caribbean is to look at it from the perspective of heightened political risk and uncertainty.... Read More
Nationalism and anti-American sentiments have traditionally run high in Latin America and the Caribbean, at least partly in response to the application of the Monroe Doctrine in its most imperialist forms.... Read More
Mexico will play a key role in Western Hemisphere relations over the next few years.... Read More
Brazil has the largest economy and population of Latin America.... Read More
Colombia depends less on the US economy than Mexico, but it has long standing military and security links with Washington.... Read More
Based on the ground covered in this report it is possible to reach various future-looking conclusions... Read More
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Choose from one of the following options
- The end of an era?
- Is the Monroe Doctrine coming back?
- Boats and tankers under threat
- The big picture; US national security strategy (NSS)
- China maintains LAC focus
- Trump’s use of tariffs
- Latin America swings to the right
- 2026: a year of heightened risk
- What chances of a nationalist backlash?
- Examining the future (1): Mexico
- Examining the future (2): Brazil
- Examining the future (3): Colombia
- Conclusion: the year of uncertainty