*The monetary policy committee (Copom) of Brazil’s central bank (BCB) has lowered the country’s benchmark interest rate (Selic) to 14.25%, marking the
third consecutive meeting in which the committee decreased the Selic by 25 basis points. The latest Copom statement warned that the
“global environment remains uncertain due to the lack of clarity regarding the terms of the agreement to end the armed conflicts in the Middle East”. Regarding the domestic scenario the statement highlighted
“economic activity acceleration” during the
first quarter of this year, with
“cyclical sectors resuming to play a significant role” while
“the labour market still shows signals of resilience”. It also stated that
“headline inflation and core inflation [which does not include volatile items like food and fuel] accelerated, moving further away from the inflation target”.
Recently published data from the national statistics institute (Ibge) showed that annual inflation in May rose to 4.72%, breaching the upper limit of the official target range of 3.0% +/-1.5. Yesterday the BCB also released data showing that economic activity in April rose by 0.5% in monthly terms and 0.9% in year-on-year terms, while Brazil’s accumulated annual activity in the 12 months through April 2026 was up 1.6% on the preceding 12-month period.
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