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The continuing importance of hydrocarbons
A New Era of Fossil Fuels?
Latin America is home to vast reserves of oil and gas, with a long history of exploiting these resources both in partnership with foreign firms and through national oil companies (NOCs), which have become inextricably linked to fiscal stability, national sovereignty, and energy security in producing nations. ... Read More
Latin America’s fossil fuels sector has become deeply embedded in states throughout the region in the last century or so, playing a dual role as both significant contributors to the public purse and symbols of national sovereignty. ... Read More
Despite these complexities, the Paris Agreement created momentum throughout the region, with widespread commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions and adopting clean energy technologies. ... Read More
However, despite rapid progress in deploying renewable projects and adding to renewable generating capacity thanks to an uptick in investment, fossil fuels were not displaced from the overall energy mix at a comparable rate due to a number of structural constraints.... Read More
Colombia provides a unique example, with former-president Gustavo Petro (2022-2026) the only regional leader who actively tried to advance a fossil fuel phase out.... Read More
One significant factor in the failure of attempts to phase out fossil fuels is the fact that global conditions have changed markedly since the heady days of the Paris Agreement, making continued investments in hydrocarbons economically and politically rational.... Read More
Brazil illustrates this tension: it is a renewable energy powerhouse that has made serious commitments to decarbonisation and conservation efforts, while also developing a large and growing oil sector.... Read More
There are a number of other projects that are bringing additional fossil fuel capacity online, including in new producing countries Guyana and Suriname, and efforts to boost production in others such as Argentina have been stepped up in response to recent changes in political and economic conditions, both internally and externally.... Read More
Venezuela’s oil industry is a shadow of its former self after years of mismanagement and corruption, but the removal of former President Nicolas Maduro in January, followed by the rapid rapprochement with Washington under his successor President Delcy Rodriguez, has increased expectations in some quarters that the country will once again become a significant oil exporter.... Read More
A string of electoral victories for right-wing politicians has given Latin America its most pronounced rightward tilt since the 1990s, with conservative leaders coming to power in a slew of countries including Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, and Peru, in addition to right-leaning parties retaining power in Ecuador and Costa Rica.... Read More
Looking beyond the region itself, expectations that the multilateral climate framework would drive a fossil fuels phaseout have diminished, with the United Nations COP30 climate summit in November 2025 underlining the reasons why. ... Read More
Is the energy transition stalled? Can the transition continue domestically in fossil fuel-producing nations even as they maintain or grow exports?
Taken together, these constraints have limited progress in shifting the region’s energy mix, meaning that decarbonisation and hydrocarbon dependence continue to coexist at a time when the advance of climate change and shifting political coalitions have made the path forward even more complex.... Read More
In conclusion, fossil fuels never stopped being a vital part of Latin America’s energy landscape.... Read More
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- Introduction
- Historical role of fossil fuels in the region
- 2010s drive towards energy transition
- Limits of clean energy drive in the region (difficulties financing decarbonisation efforts)
- Colombia case study: Petro pushing to phase out fossil fuels but failing
- Continued global demand for fossil fuels driving exploitation in producing countries
- Brazil case study: squaring conservation commitments with more exploration
- New capacity coming online: Guyana, Suriname, Argentina Vaca Muerta + more
- Venezuela case study: to what extent will the oil industry recover its former glory?
- Future plans - how is rightward political shift changing energy policies?
- Geopolitical considerations/potential influence of multilateral climate commitments
- Is the energy transition stalled? Can the transition continue domestically in fossil fuel-producing nations even as they maintain or grow exports?
- Conclusion: to what extent did the previous fossil fuel era end?