*International credit rating agency Moody’s has raised the long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings of Argentina’s government from Caa1 to B3 and changed the outlook for the country’s economy from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’. According to a Moody’s statement, the upgrade
“reflects our assessment that Argentina’s default risk has declined materially as macroeconomic stabilization has advanced beyond the initial adjustment phase into a more durable improvement in credit fundamentals, a sign of improving governance”. It went on to highlight
“sustained fiscal surpluses, declining inflation and continued economic liberalization” as factors that have strengthened policy credibility. Regarding Argentina’s external position, Moody’s noted
“stronger export performance and rising foreign direct investment in the energy and mining sectors, alongside improved access to external financing”. Although the agency warned that
“political risks ahead of the 2027 general election remain”, it believes that
“the range of policy outcomes has narrowed relative to previous cycles, increasing the probability of policy continuity”. Moody’s has also raised Argentina’s local currency country ceiling to Ba3 from B1, while its foreign currency country ceiling was raised to B1 from B2. The upgrade follows similar decisions by international credit rating agencies Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch in recent months. Last month S&P raised its long- and short-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to ‘B-/B’ from ‘CCC+/C’. In May Fitch upgraded Argentina’s long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer default rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’. As Bloomberg points out, this means that all three main credit rating agencies now rate Argentina above the highly distressed category.
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